Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
22.83%
Fair Odds 4.38
Draw
24.78%
Fair Odds 4.04
Away Win
52.39%
Fair Odds 1.91
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.98% Fair Odds 9.11

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.38 —
Draw 4.04 —
Away Win 1.91 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.98% 9.11
2 0-1 9.89% 10.11
3 1-2 9.77% 10.23
4 0-2 8.8% 11.36
5 1-0 6.17% 16.21
6 2-1 6.09% 16.41
7 1-3 5.8% 17.25
8 0-0 5.56% 17.99
9 2-2 5.42% 18.44
10 0-3 5.22% 19.14
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.56%
17.99
9.89%
10.11
8.8%
11.36
5.22%
19.14
2.32%
43.02
0.83%
120.83
1
6.17%
16.21
10.98%
9.11
9.77%
10.23
5.8%
17.25
2.58%
38.75
0.92%
108.86
2
3.42%
29.21
6.09%
16.41
5.42%
18.44
3.22%
31.07
1.43%
69.83
0.51%
196.16
3
1.27%
78.94
2.25%
44.35
2.01%
49.83
1.19%
83.98
0.53%
188.71
0.19%
530.22
4
0.35%
284.5
0.63%
159.82
0.56%
179.57
0.33%
302.66
0.15%
680.27
0.05%
1912.05
5
0.08%
1282.05
0.14%
719.94
0.12%
809.06
0.07%
1362.4
0.03%
3067.48
0.01%
8620.69
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.09% · Fair: 92.0
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 67.04% 32.96%
1.5 30.46% 69.54%
2.5 10.16% 89.84%
3.5 2.65% 97.35%
4.5 0.56% 99.44%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 83.14% 16.86%
1.5 53.12% 46.88%
2.5 26.4% 73.6%
3.5 10.55% 89.45%
4.5 3.5% 96.5%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.56% 17.99
1 16.06% 6.23
2 23.21% 4.31
3 22.36% 4.47
4 16.15% 6.19
5+ 16.66% 6.00
Over 2.5 55.17% Under 2.5 44.83%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 22.83%
Draw 24.78%
Away Win 52.39%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 55.17%
Under 2.5 44.83%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.74%
No 44.26%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.68% 37.36 6.32% 15.83 91.01% 1.1
-1.5 8.99% 11.12 — 91.01% 1.1
-1.0 8.99% 11.12 14.64% 6.83 76.37% 1.31
-0.5 23.63% 4.23 — 76.37% 1.31
0 (PK) 23.63% 4.23 23.31% 4.29 53.06% 1.88
+0.5 46.94% 2.13 — 53.06% 1.88
+1.0 46.94% 2.13 23.47% 4.26 29.59% 3.38
+1.5 70.41% 1.42 — 29.59% 3.38
+2.0 70.41% 1.42 16.24% 6.16 13.35% 7.49

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.