Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
40.46%
Fair Odds 2.47
Draw
23.27%
Fair Odds 4.3
Away Win
36.27%
Fair Odds 2.76
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 8.77% Fair Odds 11.4

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.47 —
Draw 4.3 —
Away Win 2.76 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 8.77% 11.4
2 2-1 8.11% 12.33
3 1-2 7.76% 12.88
4 2-2 7.18% 13.93
5 3-1 5.0% 19.99
6 1-0 4.95% 20.18
7 0-1 4.74% 21.09
8 2-0 4.58% 21.82
9 1-3 4.58% 21.84
10 3-2 4.43% 22.59
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.68%
37.34
4.74%
21.09
4.2%
23.84
2.48%
40.4
1.1%
91.3
0.39%
257.93
1
4.95%
20.18
8.77%
11.4
7.76%
12.88
4.58%
21.84
2.03%
49.35
0.72%
139.41
2
4.58%
21.82
8.11%
12.33
7.18%
13.93
4.24%
23.61
1.87%
53.35
0.66%
150.72
3
2.83%
35.38
5.0%
19.99
4.43%
22.59
2.61%
38.28
1.16%
86.51
0.41%
244.38
4
1.31%
76.5
2.31%
43.22
2.05%
48.84
1.21%
82.77
0.53%
187.06
0.19%
528.54
5
0.48%
206.74
0.86%
116.81
0.76%
132.0
0.45%
223.71
0.2%
505.56
0.07%
1428.57
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.12% · Fair: 47.09
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 84.28% 15.72%
1.5 55.19% 44.81%
2.5 28.28% 71.72%
3.5 11.69% 88.31%
4.5 4.01% 95.99%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 82.97% 17.03%
1.5 52.82% 47.18%
2.5 26.14% 73.86%
3.5 10.39% 89.61%
4.5 3.43% 96.57%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.68% 37.34
1 9.70% 10.31
2 17.55% 5.70
3 21.18% 4.72
4 19.16% 5.22
5+ 29.74% 3.36
Over 2.5 70.08% Under 2.5 29.92%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 40.46%
Draw 23.27%
Away Win 36.27%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 70.08%
Under 2.5 29.92%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 69.92%
No 30.08%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.62% 10.4 12.15% 8.23 78.23% 1.28
-1.5 21.77% 4.59 — 78.23% 1.28
-1.0 21.77% 4.59 18.92% 5.28 59.31% 1.69
-0.5 40.69% 2.46 — 59.31% 1.69
0 (PK) 40.69% 2.46 21.85% 4.58 37.46% 2.67
+0.5 62.54% 1.6 — 37.46% 2.67
+1.0 62.54% 1.6 18.11% 5.52 19.35% 5.17
+1.5 80.65% 1.24 — 19.35% 5.17
+2.0 80.65% 1.24 11.12% 8.99 8.23% 12.14

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.