Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.25%
Fair Odds 2.68
Draw
23.64%
Fair Odds 4.23
Away Win
39.11%
Fair Odds 2.56
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.17% Fair Odds 10.91

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.68 —
Draw 4.23 —
Away Win 2.56 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.17% 10.91
2 1-2 8.11% 12.32
3 2-1 8.02% 12.47
4 2-2 7.1% 14.08
5 0-1 5.24% 19.09
6 1-0 5.18% 19.31
7 1-3 4.79% 20.89
8 3-1 4.68% 21.37
9 0-2 4.64% 21.57
10 2-0 4.53% 22.06
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.96%
33.78
5.24%
19.09
4.64%
21.57
2.74%
36.56
1.21%
82.61
0.43%
233.37
1
5.18%
19.31
9.17%
10.91
8.11%
12.32
4.79%
20.89
2.12%
47.21
0.75%
133.35
2
4.53%
22.06
8.02%
12.47
7.1%
14.08
4.19%
23.87
1.85%
53.95
0.66%
152.39
3
2.64%
37.82
4.68%
21.37
4.14%
24.15
2.44%
40.92
1.08%
92.48
0.38%
261.23
4
1.16%
86.45
2.05%
48.84
1.81%
55.19
1.07%
93.55
0.47%
211.37
0.17%
597.01
5
0.4%
246.97
0.72%
139.55
0.63%
157.68
0.37%
267.24
0.17%
603.86
0.06%
1706.48
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.87% · Fair: 53.6
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 82.62% 17.38%
1.5 52.21% 47.79%
2.5 25.6% 74.4%
3.5 10.08% 89.92%
4.5 3.29% 96.71%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 82.97% 17.03%
1.5 52.82% 47.18%
2.5 26.14% 73.86%
3.5 10.39% 89.61%
4.5 3.43% 96.57%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.96% 33.78
1 10.42% 9.60
2 18.34% 5.45
3 21.52% 4.65
4 18.93% 5.28
5+ 27.83% 3.59
Over 2.5 68.28% Under 2.5 31.72%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.25%
Draw 23.64%
Away Win 39.11%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 68.28%
Under 2.5 31.72%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 68.55%
No 31.45%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.44% 11.85 11.45% 8.73 80.11% 1.25
-1.5 19.89% 5.03 — 80.11% 1.25
-1.0 19.89% 5.03 18.6% 5.38 61.51% 1.63
-0.5 38.49% 2.6 — 61.51% 1.63
0 (PK) 38.49% 2.6 22.21% 4.5 39.3% 2.54
+0.5 60.69% 1.65 — 39.3% 2.54
+1.0 60.69% 1.65 18.81% 5.32 20.5% 4.88
+1.5 79.5% 1.26 — 20.5% 4.88
+2.0 79.5% 1.26 11.71% 8.54 8.78% 11.39

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.