Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
36.38%
Fair Odds 2.75
Draw
23.78%
Fair Odds 4.21
Away Win
39.84%
Fair Odds 2.51
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.32% Fair Odds 10.72

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.75 —
Draw 4.21 —
Away Win 2.51 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.32% 10.72
2 1-2 8.25% 12.12
3 2-1 7.97% 12.54
4 2-2 7.06% 14.17
5 0-1 5.45% 18.34
6 1-0 5.27% 18.98
7 1-3 4.87% 20.54
8 0-2 4.83% 20.72
9 3-1 4.54% 22.01
10 2-0 4.5% 22.2
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.08%
32.46
5.45%
18.34
4.83%
20.72
2.85%
35.12
1.26%
79.37
0.45%
224.22
1
5.27%
18.98
9.32%
10.72
8.25%
12.12
4.87%
20.54
2.15%
46.42
0.76%
131.11
2
4.5%
22.2
7.97%
12.54
7.06%
14.17
4.16%
24.02
1.84%
54.29
0.65%
153.35
3
2.57%
38.95
4.54%
22.01
4.02%
24.87
2.37%
42.14
1.05%
95.24
0.37%
269.03
4
1.1%
91.11
1.94%
51.47
1.72%
58.16
1.01%
98.58
0.45%
222.77
0.16%
629.33
5
0.38%
266.38
0.66%
150.51
0.59%
170.07
0.35%
288.27
0.15%
651.47
0.05%
1841.62
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.78% · Fair: 56.33
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.91% 18.09%
1.5 50.99% 49.01%
2.5 24.54% 75.46%
3.5 9.47% 90.53%
4.5 3.03% 96.97%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 82.97% 17.03%
1.5 52.82% 47.18%
2.5 26.14% 73.86%
3.5 10.39% 89.61%
4.5 3.43% 96.57%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.08% 32.46
1 10.72% 9.33
2 18.65% 5.36
3 21.64% 4.62
4 18.83% 5.31
5+ 27.08% 3.69
Over 2.5 67.54% Under 2.5 32.46%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 36.38%
Draw 23.78%
Away Win 39.84%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 67.54%
Under 2.5 32.46%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 67.96%
No 32.04%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.99% 12.52 11.16% 8.96 80.85% 1.24
-1.5 19.15% 5.22 — 80.85% 1.24
-1.0 19.15% 5.22 18.45% 5.42 62.4% 1.6
-0.5 37.6% 2.66 — 62.4% 1.6
0 (PK) 37.6% 2.66 22.34% 4.48 40.06% 2.5
+0.5 59.94% 1.67 — 40.06% 2.5
+1.0 59.94% 1.67 19.09% 5.24 20.97% 4.77
+1.5 79.03% 1.27 — 20.97% 4.77
+2.0 79.03% 1.27 11.96% 8.36 9.01% 11.1

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.