Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
32.41%
Fair Odds 3.09
Draw
24.31%
Fair Odds 4.11
Away Win
43.28%
Fair Odds 2.31
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.99% Fair Odds 10.01

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.09 —
Draw 4.11 —
Away Win 2.31 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.99% 10.01
2 1-2 8.84% 11.31
3 2-1 7.64% 13.09
4 2-2 6.76% 14.79
5 0-1 6.53% 15.32
6 0-2 5.78% 17.31
7 1-0 5.64% 17.72
8 1-3 5.22% 19.17
9 2-0 4.32% 23.16
10 2-3 3.99% 25.06
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.69%
27.11
6.53%
15.32
5.78%
17.31
3.41%
29.34
1.51%
66.3
0.53%
187.27
1
5.64%
17.72
9.99%
10.01
8.84%
11.31
5.22%
19.17
2.31%
43.33
0.82%
122.4
2
4.32%
23.16
7.64%
13.09
6.76%
14.79
3.99%
25.06
1.77%
56.64
0.62%
160.0
3
2.2%
45.42
3.9%
25.66
3.45%
29.0
2.03%
49.14
0.9%
111.06
0.32%
313.77
4
0.84%
118.75
1.49%
67.09
1.32%
75.8
0.78%
128.49
0.34%
290.36
0.12%
820.34
5
0.26%
388.05
0.46%
219.25
0.4%
247.71
0.24%
419.82
0.11%
948.77
0.04%
2680.97
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.45% · Fair: 69.15
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.35% 21.65%
1.5 45.22% 54.78%
2.5 19.87% 80.13%
3.5 6.95% 93.05%
4.5 2.0% 98.0%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 82.97% 17.03%
1.5 52.82% 47.18%
2.5 26.14% 73.86%
3.5 10.39% 89.61%
4.5 3.43% 96.57%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.69% 27.11
1 12.17% 8.22
2 20.08% 4.98
3 22.09% 4.53
4 18.23% 5.49
5+ 23.74% 4.21
Over 2.5 64.06% Under 2.5 35.94%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 32.41%
Draw 24.31%
Away Win 43.28%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 64.06%
Under 2.5 35.94%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 65.0%
No 35.0%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.1% 16.4 9.8% 10.2 84.1% 1.19
-1.5 15.9% 6.29 — 84.1% 1.19
-1.0 15.9% 6.29 17.63% 5.67 66.47% 1.5
-0.5 33.53% 2.98 — 66.47% 1.5
0 (PK) 33.53% 2.98 22.86% 4.37 43.62% 2.29
+0.5 56.38% 1.77 — 43.62% 2.29
+1.0 56.38% 1.77 20.39% 4.9 23.22% 4.31
+1.5 76.78% 1.3 — 23.22% 4.31
+2.0 76.78% 1.3 13.12% 7.62 10.11% 9.89

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.