Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
29.06%
Fair Odds 3.44
Draw
24.63%
Fair Odds 4.06
Away Win
46.31%
Fair Odds 2.16
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.47% Fair Odds 9.55

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.44 —
Draw 4.06 —
Away Win 2.16 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.47% 9.55
2 1-2 9.26% 10.8
3 0-1 7.58% 13.18
4 2-1 7.22% 13.85
5 0-2 6.71% 14.9
6 2-2 6.39% 15.65
7 1-0 5.91% 16.91
8 1-3 5.47% 18.3
9 0-0 4.29% 23.34
10 2-0 4.08% 24.51
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.29%
23.34
7.58%
13.18
6.71%
14.9
3.96%
25.25
1.75%
57.06
0.62%
161.19
1
5.91%
16.91
10.47%
9.55
9.26%
10.8
5.47%
18.3
2.42%
41.35
0.86%
116.81
2
4.08%
24.51
7.22%
13.85
6.39%
15.65
3.77%
26.52
1.67%
59.93
0.59%
169.29
3
1.88%
53.28
3.32%
30.1
2.94%
34.01
1.73%
57.65
0.77%
130.28
0.27%
368.05
4
0.65%
154.42
1.15%
87.24
1.01%
98.58
0.6%
167.08
0.26%
377.64
0.09%
1067.24
5
0.18%
559.6
0.32%
316.16
0.28%
357.14
0.17%
605.33
0.07%
1367.99
0.03%
3861.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.26% · Fair: 79.54
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.84% 25.16%
1.5 40.12% 59.88%
2.5 16.17% 83.83%
3.5 5.15% 94.85%
4.5 1.35% 98.65%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 82.97% 17.03%
1.5 52.82% 47.18%
2.5 26.14% 73.86%
3.5 10.39% 89.61%
4.5 3.43% 96.57%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.29% 23.34
1 13.50% 7.41
2 21.26% 4.70
3 22.32% 4.48
4 17.58% 5.69
5+ 21.05% 4.75
Over 2.5 60.96% Under 2.5 39.04%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 29.06%
Draw 24.63%
Away Win 46.31%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 60.96%
Under 2.5 39.04%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 62.09%
No 37.91%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.72% 21.2 8.6% 11.63 86.68% 1.15
-1.5 13.32% 7.51 — 86.68% 1.15
-1.0 13.32% 7.51 16.75% 5.97 69.93% 1.43
-0.5 30.07% 3.33 — 69.93% 1.43
0 (PK) 30.07% 3.33 23.17% 4.32 46.76% 2.14
+0.5 53.24% 1.88 — 46.76% 2.14
+1.0 53.24% 1.88 21.49% 4.65 25.27% 3.96
+1.5 74.73% 1.34 — 25.27% 3.96
+2.0 74.73% 1.34 14.15% 7.07 11.12% 8.99

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.