Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
25.45%
Fair Odds 3.93
Draw
24.83%
Fair Odds 4.03
Away Win
49.72%
Fair Odds 2.01
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.86% Fair Odds 9.21

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.93 —
Draw 4.03 —
Away Win 2.01 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.86% 9.21
2 1-2 9.61% 10.41
3 0-1 8.9% 11.23
4 0-2 7.88% 12.69
5 2-1 6.62% 15.1
6 1-0 6.14% 16.3
7 2-2 5.86% 17.06
8 1-3 5.67% 17.64
9 0-0 5.03% 19.89
10 0-3 4.65% 21.52
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.03%
19.89
8.9%
11.23
7.88%
12.69
4.65%
21.52
2.06%
48.62
0.73%
137.36
1
6.14%
16.3
10.86%
9.21
9.61%
10.41
5.67%
17.64
2.51%
39.86
0.89%
112.59
2
3.74%
26.72
6.62%
15.1
5.86%
17.06
3.46%
28.91
1.53%
65.34
0.54%
184.57
3
1.52%
65.71
2.69%
37.12
2.38%
41.95
1.41%
71.09
0.62%
160.67
0.22%
453.93
4
0.46%
215.42
0.82%
121.71
0.73%
137.53
0.43%
233.1
0.19%
526.87
0.07%
1488.1
5
0.11%
882.61
0.2%
498.75
0.18%
563.7
0.1%
955.11
0.05%
2159.83
0.02%
6097.56
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.12% · Fair: 89.07
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 70.48% 29.52%
1.5 34.46% 65.54%
2.5 12.49% 87.51%
3.5 3.55% 96.45%
4.5 0.83% 99.17%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 82.97% 17.03%
1.5 52.82% 47.18%
2.5 26.14% 73.86%
3.5 10.39% 89.61%
4.5 3.43% 96.57%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.03% 19.89
1 15.04% 6.65
2 22.48% 4.45
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.75% 5.97
5+ 18.31% 5.46
Over 2.5 57.46% Under 2.5 42.54%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 25.45%
Draw 24.83%
Away Win 49.72%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.46%
Under 2.5 42.54%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 58.47%
No 41.53%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.45% 29.01 7.28% 13.74 89.27% 1.12
-1.5 10.72% 9.32 — 89.27% 1.12
-1.0 10.72% 9.32 15.62% 6.4 73.65% 1.36
-0.5 26.35% 3.8 — 73.65% 1.36
0 (PK) 26.35% 3.8 23.36% 4.28 50.29% 1.99
+0.5 49.71% 2.01 — 50.29% 1.99
+1.0 49.71% 2.01 22.66% 4.41 27.62% 3.62
+1.5 72.38% 1.38 — 27.62% 3.62
+2.0 72.38% 1.38 15.32% 6.53 12.31% 8.13

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.