Football Poisson Calculator
xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine
INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
24.32%
Fair Odds
4.11
Draw
24.86%
Fair Odds
4.02
Away Win
50.82%
Fair Odds
1.97
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.95%
Fair Odds 9.13
Match odds & output
FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
| Market | Market Odds | Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. | Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 4.11 | — | |
| Draw | 4.02 | — | |
| Away Win | 1.97 | — |
Find Value Opportunities
Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.
See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
| # | Correct Score | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 10.95% | 9.13 |
| 2 | 1-2 | 9.69% | 10.32 |
| 3 | 0-1 | 9.36% | 10.69 |
| 4 | 0-2 | 8.28% | 12.08 |
| 5 | 2-1 | 6.4% | 15.61 |
| 6 | 1-0 | 6.19% | 16.17 |
| 7 | 1-3 | 5.72% | 17.49 |
| 8 | 2-2 | 5.67% | 17.64 |
| 9 | 0-0 | 5.29% | 18.92 |
| 10 | 0-3 | 4.89% | 20.47 |
SCORE MATRIX
Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
5.29%
18.92
|
9.36%
10.69
|
8.28%
12.08
|
4.89%
20.47
|
2.16%
46.25
|
0.77%
130.65
|
| 1 |
6.19%
16.17
|
10.95%
9.13
|
9.69%
10.32
|
5.72%
17.49
|
2.53%
39.53
|
0.9%
111.67
|
| 2 |
3.62%
27.64
|
6.4%
15.61
|
5.67%
17.64
|
3.34%
29.9
|
1.48%
67.58
|
0.52%
190.91
|
| 3 |
1.41%
70.86
|
2.5%
40.04
|
2.21%
45.24
|
1.3%
76.68
|
0.58%
173.28
|
0.2%
489.48
|
| 4 |
0.41%
242.25
|
0.73%
136.87
|
0.65%
154.66
|
0.38%
262.12
|
0.17%
592.42
|
0.06%
1672.24
|
| 5 |
0.1%
1035.2
|
0.17%
584.8
|
0.15%
660.94
|
0.09%
1119.82
|
0.04%
2531.65
|
0.01%
7142.86
|
Any other score (6+ goals either side)
1.09%
·
Fair:
91.56
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 68.96% | 31.04% |
| 1.5 | 32.65% | 67.35% |
| 2.5 | 11.41% | 88.59% |
| 3.5 | 3.12% | 96.88% |
| 4.5 | 0.7% | 99.3% |
Away Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 82.97% | 17.03% |
| 1.5 | 52.82% | 47.18% |
| 2.5 | 26.14% | 73.86% |
| 3.5 | 10.39% | 89.61% |
| 4.5 | 3.43% | 96.57% |
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
| Goals | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.29% | 18.92 |
| 1 | 15.54% | 6.43 |
| 2 | 22.85% | 4.38 |
| 3 | 22.39% | 4.47 |
| 4 | 16.46% | 6.08 |
| 5+ | 17.48% | 5.72 |
|
Over 2.5 56.32%
Under 2.5 43.68%
|
||
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win
24.32%
Draw
24.86%
Away Win
50.82%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.32%
Under 2.5
43.68%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes
57.22%
No
42.78%
Asian Handicap Probability
?
Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model.
Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines.
Home Handicap
| Line | Home Side | Push | Away Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 3.09% 32.33 | 6.86% 14.58 | 90.05% 1.11 |
| -1.5 | 9.95% 10.05 | — | 90.05% 1.11 |
| -1.0 | 9.95% 10.05 | 15.22% 6.57 | 74.82% 1.34 |
| -0.5 | 25.18% 3.97 | — | 74.82% 1.34 |
| 0 (PK) | 25.18% 3.97 | 23.39% 4.28 | 51.43% 1.94 |
| +0.5 | 48.57% 2.06 | — | 51.43% 1.94 |
| +1.0 | 48.57% 2.06 | 23.03% 4.34 | 28.4% 3.52 |
| +1.5 | 71.6% 1.4 | — | 28.4% 3.52 |
| +2.0 | 71.6% 1.4 | 15.7% 6.37 | 12.7% 7.87 |
HOW THE MODEL WORKS
Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output
All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).
Limits of the Poisson model
Strong model, with caveats:
- Independent goals = simplifying assumption
- Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
- Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
SHARE THIS TOOL
How to use the Poisson calculator
- Enter the home xG
- Enter the away xG
- Click Calculate (or use live update)
- Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions
For anyone doing data-led football work.
Why Poisson helps xG models
xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.
Benefits such as
- Less noise from finishing luck
- Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
- Fair-odds from clean probabilities
- Spot model vs book value
Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.
Frequently asked questions (FAQ)
It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.
Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.
Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).
Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source
Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.
Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.
