Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
41.7%
Fair Odds 2.4
Draw
23.1%
Fair Odds 4.33
Away Win
35.2%
Fair Odds 2.84
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 8.61% Fair Odds 11.62

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.4 —
Draw 4.33 —
Away Win 2.84 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 8.61% 11.62
2 2-1 8.17% 12.23
3 1-2 7.57% 13.21
4 2-2 7.19% 13.9
5 3-1 5.18% 19.31
6 1-0 4.89% 20.45
7 2-0 4.64% 21.53
8 3-2 4.56% 21.95
9 0-1 4.53% 22.08
10 1-3 4.44% 22.51
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.57%
38.86
4.53%
22.08
3.99%
25.09
2.34%
42.77
1.03%
97.2
0.36%
276.17
1
4.89%
20.45
8.61%
11.62
7.57%
13.21
4.44%
22.51
1.95%
51.16
0.69%
145.33
2
4.64%
21.53
8.17%
12.23
7.19%
13.9
4.22%
23.69
1.86%
53.85
0.65%
153.0
3
2.94%
33.99
5.18%
19.31
4.56%
21.95
2.67%
37.41
1.18%
85.03
0.41%
241.55
4
1.4%
71.57
2.46%
40.66
2.16%
46.21
1.27%
78.76
0.56%
179.02
0.2%
508.65
5
0.53%
188.32
0.93%
107.01
0.82%
121.6
0.48%
207.25
0.21%
471.03
0.07%
1338.69
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.25% · Fair: 44.53
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 85.04% 14.96%
1.5 56.62% 43.37%
2.5 29.63% 70.37%
3.5 12.53% 87.47%
4.5 4.41% 95.59%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 82.8% 17.2%
1.5 52.52% 47.48%
2.5 25.87% 74.13%
3.5 10.24% 89.76%
4.5 3.36% 96.64%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.57% 38.86
1 9.42% 10.62
2 17.24% 5.80
3 21.03% 4.76
4 19.24% 5.20
5+ 30.51% 3.28
Over 2.5 70.77% Under 2.5 29.23%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 41.70%
Draw 23.10%
Away Win 35.20%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 70.77%
Under 2.5 29.23%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 70.41%
No 29.59%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.3% 9.71 12.54% 7.97 77.16% 1.3
-1.5 22.84% 4.38 — 77.16% 1.3
-1.0 22.84% 4.38 19.13% 5.23 58.03% 1.72
-0.5 41.97% 2.38 — 58.03% 1.72
0 (PK) 41.97% 2.38 21.69% 4.61 36.35% 2.75
+0.5 63.65% 1.57 — 36.35% 2.75
+1.0 63.65% 1.57 17.72% 5.64 18.63% 5.37
+1.5 81.37% 1.23 — 18.63% 5.37
+2.0 81.37% 1.23 10.76% 9.29 7.87% 12.71

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.