Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
40.64%
Fair Odds 2.46
Draw
23.3%
Fair Odds 4.29
Away Win
36.06%
Fair Odds 2.77
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 8.81% Fair Odds 11.35

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.46 —
Draw 4.29 —
Away Win 2.77 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 8.81% 11.35
2 2-1 8.15% 12.27
3 1-2 7.75% 12.9
4 2-2 7.17% 13.95
5 3-1 5.02% 19.9
6 1-0 5.0% 19.98
7 0-1 4.76% 21.0
8 2-0 4.63% 21.6
9 1-3 4.55% 21.99
10 3-2 4.42% 22.62
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.71%
36.97
4.76%
21.0
4.19%
23.87
2.46%
40.68
1.08%
92.46
0.38%
262.67
1
5.0%
19.98
8.81%
11.35
7.75%
12.9
4.55%
21.99
2.0%
49.98
0.7%
141.98
2
4.63%
21.6
8.15%
12.27
7.17%
13.95
4.21%
23.77
1.85%
54.03
0.65%
153.49
3
2.85%
35.03
5.02%
19.9
4.42%
22.62
2.59%
38.55
1.14%
87.62
0.4%
248.94
4
1.32%
75.74
2.32%
43.03
2.04%
48.9
1.2%
83.35
0.53%
189.43
0.19%
538.21
5
0.49%
204.71
0.86%
116.31
0.76%
132.17
0.44%
225.28
0.2%
512.03
0.07%
1455.6
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.1% · Fair: 47.63
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 84.28% 15.72%
1.5 55.19% 44.81%
2.5 28.28% 71.72%
3.5 11.69% 88.31%
4.5 4.01% 95.99%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 82.8% 17.2%
1.5 52.52% 47.48%
2.5 25.87% 74.13%
3.5 10.24% 89.76%
4.5 3.36% 96.64%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.71% 36.97
1 9.77% 10.24
2 17.63% 5.67
3 21.21% 4.71
4 19.14% 5.22
5+ 29.55% 3.38
Over 2.5 69.9% Under 2.5 30.1%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 40.64%
Draw 23.30%
Away Win 36.06%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 69.9%
Under 2.5 30.1%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 69.78%
No 30.22%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.68% 10.33 12.21% 8.19 78.11% 1.28
-1.5 21.89% 4.57 — 78.11% 1.28
-1.0 21.89% 4.57 18.99% 5.27 59.12% 1.69
-0.5 40.88% 2.45 — 59.12% 1.69
0 (PK) 40.88% 2.45 21.88% 4.57 37.24% 2.69
+0.5 62.76% 1.59 — 37.24% 2.69
+1.0 62.76% 1.59 18.07% 5.53 19.17% 5.22
+1.5 80.83% 1.24 — 19.17% 5.22
+2.0 80.83% 1.24 11.05% 9.05 8.12% 12.31

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.