Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
36.77%
Fair Odds 2.72
Draw
23.78%
Fair Odds 4.2
Away Win
39.44%
Fair Odds 2.54
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.33% Fair Odds 10.72

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.72 —
Draw 4.2 —
Away Win 2.54 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.33% 10.72
2 1-2 8.21% 12.18
3 2-1 8.02% 12.47
4 2-2 7.06% 14.17
5 0-1 5.42% 18.44
6 1-0 5.3% 18.87
7 1-3 4.81% 20.77
8 0-2 4.77% 20.96
9 3-1 4.6% 21.75
10 2-0 4.56% 21.94
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.08%
32.46
5.42%
18.44
4.77%
20.96
2.8%
35.72
1.23%
81.19
0.43%
230.63
1
5.3%
18.87
9.33%
10.72
8.21%
12.18
4.81%
20.77
2.12%
47.2
0.75%
134.1
2
4.56%
21.94
8.02%
12.47
7.06%
14.17
4.14%
24.15
1.82%
54.89
0.64%
155.93
3
2.61%
38.27
4.6%
21.75
4.05%
24.71
2.37%
42.12
1.04%
95.73
0.37%
271.96
4
1.12%
89.01
1.98%
50.57
1.74%
57.47
1.02%
97.96
0.45%
222.62
0.16%
632.51
5
0.39%
258.73
0.68%
147.02
0.6%
167.06
0.35%
284.74
0.15%
647.25
0.05%
1838.24
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.77% · Fair: 56.42
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 82.09% 17.91%
1.5 51.29% 48.71%
2.5 24.81% 75.19%
3.5 9.62% 90.38%
4.5 3.09% 96.91%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 82.8% 17.2%
1.5 52.52% 47.48%
2.5 25.87% 74.13%
3.5 10.24% 89.76%
4.5 3.36% 96.64%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.08% 32.46
1 10.72% 9.33
2 18.65% 5.36
3 21.64% 4.62
4 18.83% 5.31
5+ 27.08% 3.69
Over 2.5 67.54% Under 2.5 32.46%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 36.77%
Draw 23.78%
Away Win 39.44%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 67.54%
Under 2.5 32.46%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 67.97%
No 32.03%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.15% 12.27 11.29% 8.85 80.55% 1.24
-1.5 19.45% 5.14 — 80.55% 1.24
-1.0 19.45% 5.14 18.56% 5.39 62.0% 1.61
-0.5 38.0% 2.63 — 62.0% 1.61
0 (PK) 38.0% 2.63 22.35% 4.47 39.65% 2.52
+0.5 60.35% 1.66 — 39.65% 2.52
+1.0 60.35% 1.66 18.99% 5.27 20.66% 4.84
+1.5 79.34% 1.26 — 20.66% 4.84
+2.0 79.34% 1.26 11.83% 8.46 8.83% 11.32

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.