Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
47.63%
Fair Odds 2.1
Draw
21.86%
Fair Odds 4.57
Away Win
30.51%
Fair Odds 3.28
Most Likely Score
2 - 1
Probability 8.17% Fair Odds 12.24

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.1 —
Draw 4.57 —
Away Win 3.28 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-1 8.17% 12.24
2 1-1 7.49% 13.34
3 2-2 7.15% 13.99
4 1-2 6.56% 15.25
5 3-1 5.94% 16.85
6 3-2 5.19% 19.25
7 2-0 4.67% 21.42
8 1-0 4.28% 23.35
9 2-3 4.17% 23.98
10 1-3 3.83% 26.14
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
1.96%
50.91
3.44%
29.09
3.01%
33.24
1.75%
56.99
0.77%
130.26
0.27%
372.16
1
4.28%
23.35
7.49%
13.34
6.56%
15.25
3.83%
26.14
1.67%
59.76
0.59%
170.74
2
4.67%
21.42
8.17%
12.24
7.15%
13.99
4.17%
23.98
1.82%
54.82
0.64%
156.64
3
3.39%
29.48
5.94%
16.85
5.19%
19.25
3.03%
33.01
1.33%
75.44
0.46%
215.56
4
1.85%
54.09
3.24%
30.91
2.83%
35.33
1.65%
60.56
0.72%
138.43
0.25%
395.57
5
0.81%
124.07
1.41%
70.9
1.23%
81.02
0.72%
138.91
0.32%
317.46
0.11%
907.44
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 3.29% · Fair: 30.42
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 88.69% 11.3%
1.5 64.05% 35.95%
2.5 37.19% 62.81%
3.5 17.67% 82.33%
4.5 7.03% 92.96%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 82.62% 17.38%
1.5 52.21% 47.79%
2.5 25.6% 74.4%
3.5 10.08% 89.92%
4.5 3.29% 96.71%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 1.96% 50.91
1 7.72% 12.95
2 15.17% 6.59
3 19.87% 5.03
4 19.53% 5.12
5+ 35.75% 2.80
Over 2.5 75.14% Under 2.5 24.85%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 47.63%
Draw 21.86%
Away Win 30.51%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 75.14%
Under 2.5 24.85%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 73.28%
No 26.72%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 14.13% 7.08 14.28% 7.0 71.58% 1.4
-1.5 28.41% 3.52 — 71.58% 1.4
-1.0 28.41% 3.52 19.65% 5.09 51.93% 1.93
-0.5 48.07% 2.08 — 51.93% 1.93
0 (PK) 48.07% 2.08 20.48% 4.88 31.45% 3.18
+0.5 68.55% 1.46 — 31.45% 3.18
+1.0 68.55% 1.46 15.78% 6.34 15.67% 6.38
+1.5 84.33% 1.19 — 15.67% 6.38
+2.0 84.33% 1.19 9.2% 10.87 6.47% 15.47

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.