Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
32.97%
Fair Odds 3.03
Draw
24.39%
Fair Odds 4.1
Away Win
42.63%
Fair Odds 2.35
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.04% Fair Odds 9.96

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.03 —
Draw 4.1 —
Away Win 2.35 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.04% 9.96
2 1-2 8.79% 11.38
3 2-1 7.73% 12.94
4 2-2 6.76% 14.78
5 0-1 6.52% 15.34
6 1-0 5.74% 17.43
7 0-2 5.7% 17.53
8 1-3 5.12% 19.51
9 2-0 4.42% 22.64
10 3-1 3.97% 25.2
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.73%
26.84
6.52%
15.34
5.7%
17.53
3.33%
30.05
1.46%
68.69
0.51%
196.27
1
5.74%
17.43
10.04%
9.96
8.79%
11.38
5.12%
19.51
2.24%
44.6
0.78%
127.44
2
4.42%
22.64
7.73%
12.94
6.76%
14.78
3.95%
25.34
1.73%
57.93
0.6%
165.51
3
2.27%
44.1
3.97%
25.2
3.47%
28.8
2.03%
49.37
0.89%
112.84
0.31%
322.37
4
0.87%
114.53
1.53%
65.45
1.34%
74.8
0.78%
128.24
0.34%
293.08
0.12%
837.52
5
0.27%
371.89
0.47%
212.49
0.41%
242.84
0.24%
416.32
0.11%
951.47
0.04%
2717.39
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.41% · Fair: 70.77
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.56% 21.44%
1.5 45.55% 54.45%
2.5 20.13% 79.87%
3.5 7.08% 92.92%
4.5 2.05% 97.95%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 82.62% 17.38%
1.5 52.21% 47.79%
2.5 25.6% 74.4%
3.5 10.08% 89.92%
4.5 3.29% 96.71%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.73% 26.84
1 12.26% 8.16
2 20.16% 4.96
3 22.11% 4.52
4 18.19% 5.50
5+ 23.56% 4.24
Over 2.5 63.86% Under 2.5 36.14%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 32.97%
Draw 24.39%
Away Win 42.63%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 63.86%
Under 2.5 36.14%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 64.91%
No 35.09%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.28% 15.92 9.99% 10.01 83.73% 1.19
-1.5 16.27% 6.14 — 83.73% 1.19
-1.0 16.27% 6.14 17.84% 5.61 65.89% 1.52
-0.5 34.11% 2.93 — 65.89% 1.52
0 (PK) 34.11% 2.93 22.94% 4.36 42.95% 2.33
+0.5 57.05% 1.75 — 42.95% 2.33
+1.0 57.05% 1.75 20.27% 4.93 22.69% 4.41
+1.5 77.31% 1.29 — 22.69% 4.41
+2.0 77.31% 1.29 12.9% 7.75 9.78% 10.22

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.