Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
28.02%
Fair Odds 3.57
Draw
24.87%
Fair Odds 4.02
Away Win
47.11%
Fair Odds 2.12
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.72% Fair Odds 9.33

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.57 —
Draw 4.02 —
Away Win 2.12 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.72% 9.33
2 1-2 9.38% 10.66
3 0-1 8.12% 12.31
4 0-2 7.11% 14.07
5 2-1 7.08% 14.13
6 2-2 6.19% 16.15
7 1-0 6.13% 16.32
8 1-3 5.47% 18.27
9 0-0 4.64% 21.54
10 0-3 4.15% 24.12
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.64%
21.54
8.12%
12.31
7.11%
14.07
4.15%
24.12
1.81%
55.12
0.63%
157.51
1
6.13%
16.32
10.72%
9.33
9.38%
10.66
5.47%
18.27
2.39%
41.76
0.84%
119.32
2
4.04%
24.73
7.08%
14.13
6.19%
16.15
3.61%
27.68
1.58%
63.28
0.55%
180.77
3
1.78%
56.2
3.11%
32.11
2.72%
36.7
1.59%
62.91
0.7%
143.8
0.24%
410.85
4
0.59%
170.3
1.03%
97.31
0.9%
111.21
0.52%
190.66
0.23%
435.73
0.08%
1245.33
5
0.15%
645.16
0.27%
368.6
0.24%
421.23
0.14%
722.02
0.06%
1650.17
0.02%
4716.98
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.15% · Fair: 86.87
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.29% 26.71%
1.5 38.02% 61.98%
2.5 14.75% 85.25%
3.5 4.51% 95.49%
4.5 1.13% 98.87%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 82.62% 17.38%
1.5 52.21% 47.79%
2.5 25.6% 74.4%
3.5 10.08% 89.92%
4.5 3.29% 96.71%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.64% 21.54
1 14.25% 7.02
2 21.88% 4.57
3 22.39% 4.47
4 17.18% 5.82
5+ 19.66% 5.09
Over 2.5 59.23% Under 2.5 40.77%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 28.02%
Draw 24.87%
Away Win 47.11%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 59.23%
Under 2.5 40.77%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 60.55%
No 39.45%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.28% 23.38 8.21% 12.18 87.51% 1.14
-1.5 12.49% 8.01 — 87.51% 1.14
-1.0 12.49% 8.01 16.52% 6.05 70.99% 1.41
-0.5 29.01% 3.45 — 70.99% 1.41
0 (PK) 29.01% 3.45 23.4% 4.27 47.59% 2.1
+0.5 52.41% 1.91 — 47.59% 2.1
+1.0 52.41% 1.91 21.9% 4.57 25.69% 3.89
+1.5 74.31% 1.35 — 25.69% 3.89
+2.0 74.31% 1.35 14.43% 6.93 11.26% 8.88

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.