Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
33.81%
Fair Odds 2.96
Draw
24.36%
Fair Odds 4.11
Away Win
41.83%
Fair Odds 2.39
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.98% Fair Odds 10.02

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.96 —
Draw 4.11 —
Away Win 2.39 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.98% 10.02
2 1-2 8.68% 11.52
3 2-1 7.83% 12.77
4 2-2 6.81% 14.68
5 0-1 6.35% 15.74
6 1-0 5.73% 17.44
7 0-2 5.53% 18.09
8 1-3 5.03% 19.87
9 2-0 4.5% 22.22
10 3-1 4.1% 24.4
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.65%
27.39
6.35%
15.74
5.53%
18.09
3.21%
31.19
1.39%
71.7
0.49%
206.06
1
5.73%
17.44
9.98%
10.02
8.68%
11.52
5.03%
19.87
2.19%
45.67
0.76%
131.23
2
4.5%
22.22
7.83%
12.77
6.81%
14.68
3.95%
25.31
1.72%
58.18
0.6%
167.17
3
2.36%
42.46
4.1%
24.4
3.57%
28.05
2.07%
48.36
0.9%
111.17
0.31%
319.49
4
0.92%
108.18
1.61%
62.17
1.4%
71.46
0.81%
123.2
0.35%
283.21
0.12%
813.67
5
0.29%
344.47
0.51%
197.98
0.44%
227.58
0.25%
392.31
0.11%
901.71
0.04%
2590.67
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.44% · Fair: 69.57
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.2% 20.8%
1.5 46.53% 53.47%
2.5 20.89% 79.11%
3.5 7.47% 92.53%
4.5 2.21% 97.79%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 82.45% 17.55%
1.5 51.91% 48.09%
2.5 25.34% 74.66%
3.5 9.93% 90.07%
4.5 3.22% 96.78%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.65% 27.39
1 12.09% 8.27
2 20.00% 5.00
3 22.07% 4.53
4 18.26% 5.48
5+ 23.92% 4.18
Over 2.5 64.26% Under 2.5 35.74%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 33.81%
Draw 24.36%
Away Win 41.83%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 64.26%
Under 2.5 35.74%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 65.29%
No 34.71%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.63% 15.08 10.28% 9.72 83.09% 1.2
-1.5 16.91% 5.91 — 83.09% 1.2
-1.0 16.91% 5.91 18.06% 5.54 65.02% 1.54
-0.5 34.98% 2.86 — 65.02% 1.54
0 (PK) 34.98% 2.86 22.9% 4.37 42.12% 2.37
+0.5 57.88% 1.73 — 42.12% 2.37
+1.0 57.88% 1.73 20.02% 5.0 22.1% 4.52
+1.5 77.9% 1.28 — 22.1% 4.52
+2.0 77.9% 1.28 12.63% 7.92 9.47% 10.56

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.