Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
18.6%
Fair Odds 5.38
Draw
25.0%
Fair Odds 4.0
Away Win
56.4%
Fair Odds 1.77
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 12.42% Fair Odds 8.05

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 5.38 —
Draw 4.0 —
Away Win 1.77 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 12.42% 8.05
2 1-1 11.18% 8.95
3 0-2 10.8% 9.26
4 1-2 9.72% 10.29
5 0-0 7.14% 14.01
6 1-0 6.42% 15.57
7 0-3 6.27% 15.96
8 1-3 5.64% 17.73
9 2-1 5.03% 19.89
10 2-2 4.38% 22.86
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.14%
14.01
12.42%
8.05
10.8%
9.26
6.27%
15.96
2.73%
36.69
0.95%
105.43
1
6.42%
15.57
11.18%
8.95
9.72%
10.29
5.64%
17.73
2.45%
40.77
0.85%
117.15
2
2.89%
34.6
5.03%
19.89
4.38%
22.86
2.54%
39.41
1.1%
90.6
0.38%
260.35
3
0.87%
115.34
1.51%
66.28
1.31%
76.19
0.76%
131.35
0.33%
301.93
0.12%
868.06
4
0.2%
512.56
0.34%
294.64
0.3%
338.64
0.17%
583.77
0.07%
1342.28
0.03%
3861.0
5
0.04%
2849.0
0.06%
1636.66
0.05%
1879.7
0.03%
3246.75
0.01%
7462.69
0.0%
21276.6
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.92% · Fair: 108.25
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 59.34% 40.66%
1.5 22.75% 77.25%
2.5 6.29% 93.71%
3.5 1.35% 98.65%
4.5 0.23% 99.77%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 82.45% 17.55%
1.5 51.91% 48.09%
2.5 25.34% 74.66%
3.5 9.93% 90.07%
4.5 3.22% 96.78%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.14% 14.01
1 18.84% 5.31
2 24.87% 4.02
3 21.88% 4.57
4 14.44% 6.92
5+ 12.83% 7.79
Over 2.5 49.16% Under 2.5 50.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 18.60%
Draw 25.00%
Away Win 56.40%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 49.16%
Under 2.5 50.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 48.93%
No 51.07%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 1.58% 63.2 4.73% 21.15 93.69% 1.07
-1.5 6.31% 15.85 — 93.69% 1.07
-1.0 6.31% 15.85 12.95% 7.72 80.74% 1.24
-0.5 19.26% 5.19 — 80.74% 1.24
0 (PK) 19.26% 5.19 23.53% 4.25 57.21% 1.75
+0.5 42.79% 2.34 — 57.21% 1.75
+1.0 42.79% 2.34 25.04% 3.99 32.18% 3.11
+1.5 67.82% 1.47 — 32.18% 3.11
+2.0 67.82% 1.47 17.67% 5.66 14.51% 6.89

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.