Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
39.04%
Fair Odds 2.56
Draw
23.79%
Fair Odds 4.2
Away Win
37.17%
Fair Odds 2.69
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.33% Fair Odds 10.72

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.56 —
Draw 4.2 —
Away Win 2.69 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.33% 10.72
2 2-1 8.16% 12.25
3 1-2 8.07% 12.39
4 2-2 7.06% 14.17
5 1-0 5.39% 18.55
6 0-1 5.33% 18.76
7 3-1 4.76% 21.01
8 2-0 4.72% 21.2
9 1-3 4.65% 21.49
10 0-2 4.61% 21.69
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.08%
32.46
5.33%
18.76
4.61%
21.69
2.66%
37.62
1.15%
86.97
0.4%
251.38
1
5.39%
18.55
9.33%
10.72
8.07%
12.39
4.65%
21.49
2.01%
49.7
0.7%
143.64
2
4.72%
21.2
8.16%
12.25
7.06%
14.17
4.07%
24.56
1.76%
56.8
0.61%
164.15
3
2.75%
36.34
4.76%
21.01
4.12%
24.28
2.37%
42.11
1.03%
97.36
0.36%
281.37
4
1.2%
83.06
2.08%
48.01
1.8%
55.51
1.04%
96.26
0.45%
222.57
0.16%
643.09
5
0.42%
237.3
0.73%
137.17
0.63%
158.58
0.36%
275.03
0.16%
635.73
0.05%
1838.24
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.77% · Fair: 56.45
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 82.62% 17.38%
1.5 52.21% 47.79%
2.5 25.6% 74.4%
3.5 10.08% 89.92%
4.5 3.29% 96.71%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 82.27% 17.73%
1.5 51.6% 48.4%
2.5 25.07% 74.93%
3.5 9.77% 90.23%
4.5 3.16% 96.84%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.08% 32.46
1 10.72% 9.33
2 18.65% 5.36
3 21.64% 4.62
4 18.83% 5.31
5+ 27.08% 3.69
Over 2.5 67.54% Under 2.5 32.46%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 39.04%
Draw 23.79%
Away Win 37.17%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 67.54%
Under 2.5 32.46%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 67.97%
No 32.03%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.66% 11.55 11.69% 8.55 79.65% 1.26
-1.5 20.35% 4.91 — 79.65% 1.26
-1.0 20.35% 4.91 18.88% 5.3 60.76% 1.65
-0.5 39.24% 2.55 — 60.76% 1.65
0 (PK) 39.24% 2.55 22.35% 4.47 38.41% 2.6
+0.5 61.59% 1.62 — 38.41% 2.6
+1.0 61.59% 1.62 18.67% 5.36 19.75% 5.06
+1.5 80.25% 1.25 — 19.75% 5.06
+2.0 80.25% 1.25 11.43% 8.75 8.32% 12.02

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.