Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
26.97%
Fair Odds 3.71
Draw
25.1%
Fair Odds 3.98
Away Win
47.93%
Fair Odds 2.09
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.96% Fair Odds 9.12

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.71 —
Draw 3.98 —
Away Win 2.09 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.96% 9.12
2 1-2 9.48% 10.55
3 0-1 8.7% 11.49
4 0-2 7.53% 13.29
5 2-1 6.91% 14.48
6 1-0 6.34% 15.78
7 2-2 5.97% 16.74
8 1-3 5.47% 18.29
9 0-0 5.03% 19.89
10 0-3 4.34% 23.04
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.03%
19.89
8.7%
11.49
7.53%
13.29
4.34%
23.04
1.88%
53.28
0.65%
153.99
1
6.34%
15.78
10.96%
9.12
9.48%
10.55
5.47%
18.29
2.36%
42.29
0.82%
122.22
2
3.99%
25.05
6.91%
14.48
5.97%
16.74
3.44%
29.03
1.49%
67.12
0.52%
193.99
3
1.68%
59.64
2.9%
34.48
2.51%
39.86
1.45%
69.12
0.63%
159.82
0.22%
461.89
4
0.53%
189.36
0.91%
109.46
0.79%
126.53
0.46%
219.44
0.2%
507.36
0.07%
1466.28
5
0.13%
751.31
0.23%
434.4
0.2%
502.01
0.11%
871.08
0.05%
2012.07
0.02%
5813.95
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.06% · Fair: 94.71
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 71.63% 28.37%
1.5 35.89% 64.11%
2.5 13.38% 86.62%
3.5 3.92% 96.08%
4.5 0.94% 99.06%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 82.27% 17.73%
1.5 51.6% 48.4%
2.5 25.07% 74.93%
3.5 9.77% 90.23%
4.5 3.16% 96.84%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.03% 19.89
1 15.04% 6.65
2 22.48% 4.45
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.75% 5.97
5+ 18.31% 5.46
Over 2.5 57.46% Under 2.5 42.54%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 26.97%
Draw 25.10%
Away Win 47.93%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.46%
Under 2.5 42.54%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 58.93%
No 41.07%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.86% 25.94 7.81% 12.81 88.34% 1.13
-1.5 11.66% 8.57 — 88.34% 1.13
-1.0 11.66% 8.57 16.26% 6.15 72.08% 1.39
-0.5 27.92% 3.58 — 72.08% 1.39
0 (PK) 27.92% 3.58 23.63% 4.23 48.45% 2.06
+0.5 51.55% 1.94 — 48.45% 2.06
+1.0 51.55% 1.94 22.33% 4.48 26.12% 3.83
+1.5 73.88% 1.35 — 26.12% 3.83
+2.0 73.88% 1.35 14.72% 6.79 11.4% 8.77

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.