Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
47.2%
Fair Odds 2.12
Draw
22.13%
Fair Odds 4.52
Away Win
30.67%
Fair Odds 3.26
Most Likely Score
2 - 1
Probability 8.3% Fair Odds 12.04

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.12 —
Draw 4.52 —
Away Win 3.26 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-1 8.3% 12.04
2 1-1 7.8% 12.83
3 2-2 7.14% 14.0
4 1-2 6.7% 14.91
5 3-1 5.9% 16.96
6 3-2 5.07% 19.72
7 2-0 4.83% 20.72
8 1-0 4.53% 22.06
9 2-3 4.09% 24.43
10 1-3 3.84% 26.01
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.13%
46.99
3.66%
27.32
3.15%
31.77
1.8%
55.41
0.78%
128.87
0.27%
374.53
1
4.53%
22.06
7.8%
12.83
6.7%
14.91
3.84%
26.01
1.65%
60.5
0.57%
175.87
2
4.83%
20.72
8.3%
12.04
7.14%
14.0
4.09%
24.43
1.76%
56.81
0.61%
165.13
3
3.43%
29.18
5.9%
16.96
5.07%
19.72
2.91%
34.4
1.25%
80.01
0.43%
232.56
4
1.83%
54.79
3.14%
31.86
2.7%
37.04
1.55%
64.61
0.67%
150.24
0.23%
436.68
5
0.78%
128.62
1.34%
74.78
1.15%
86.95
0.66%
151.65
0.28%
352.73
0.1%
1025.64
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 3.0% · Fair: 33.38
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 88.11% 11.88%
1.5 62.8% 37.2%
2.5 35.84% 64.15%
3.5 16.7% 83.29%
4.5 6.51% 93.49%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 82.09% 17.91%
1.5 51.29% 48.71%
2.5 24.81% 75.19%
3.5 9.62% 90.38%
4.5 3.09% 96.91%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.13% 46.99
1 8.19% 12.21
2 15.77% 6.34
3 20.24% 4.94
4 19.48% 5.13
5+ 34.19% 2.93
Over 2.5 73.91% Under 2.5 26.09%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 47.20%
Draw 22.13%
Away Win 30.67%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 73.91%
Under 2.5 26.09%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 72.34%
No 27.66%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 13.66% 7.32 14.19% 7.05 72.14% 1.39
-1.5 27.86% 3.59 — 72.14% 1.39
-1.0 27.86% 3.59 19.77% 5.06 52.37% 1.91
-0.5 47.63% 2.1 — 52.37% 1.91
0 (PK) 47.63% 2.1 20.74% 4.82 31.62% 3.16
+0.5 68.38% 1.46 — 31.62% 3.16
+1.0 68.38% 1.46 15.97% 6.26 15.65% 6.39
+1.5 84.34% 1.19 — 15.65% 6.39
+2.0 84.34% 1.19 9.26% 10.8 6.4% 15.63

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.