Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
34.38%
Fair Odds 2.91
Draw
24.42%
Fair Odds 4.09
Away Win
41.19%
Fair Odds 2.43
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.02% Fair Odds 9.98

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.91 —
Draw 4.09 —
Away Win 2.43 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.02% 9.98
2 1-2 8.62% 11.6
3 2-1 7.92% 12.63
4 2-2 6.81% 14.68
5 0-1 6.34% 15.76
6 1-0 5.83% 17.16
7 0-2 5.46% 18.33
8 1-3 4.94% 20.23
9 2-0 4.6% 21.72
10 3-1 4.17% 23.98
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.69%
27.11
6.34%
15.76
5.46%
18.33
3.13%
31.97
1.34%
74.35
0.46%
216.12
1
5.83%
17.16
10.02%
9.98
8.62%
11.6
4.94%
20.23
2.13%
47.06
0.73%
136.78
2
4.6%
21.72
7.92%
12.63
6.81%
14.68
3.9%
25.61
1.68%
59.56
0.58%
173.16
3
2.42%
41.24
4.17%
23.98
3.59%
27.88
2.06%
48.63
0.88%
113.1
0.3%
328.73
4
0.96%
104.42
1.65%
60.71
1.42%
70.59
0.81%
123.12
0.35%
286.29
0.12%
832.64
5
0.3%
330.47
0.52%
192.12
0.45%
223.36
0.26%
389.56
0.11%
905.8
0.04%
2631.58
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.41% · Fair: 71.0
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.4% 20.6%
1.5 46.86% 53.14%
2.5 21.15% 78.85%
3.5 7.61% 92.39%
4.5 2.26% 97.74%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 82.09% 17.91%
1.5 51.29% 48.71%
2.5 24.81% 75.19%
3.5 9.62% 90.38%
4.5 3.09% 96.91%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.69% 27.11
1 12.17% 8.22
2 20.08% 4.98
3 22.09% 4.53
4 18.23% 5.49
5+ 23.74% 4.21
Over 2.5 64.06% Under 2.5 35.94%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 34.38%
Draw 24.42%
Away Win 41.19%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 64.06%
Under 2.5 35.94%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 65.18%
No 34.82%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.82% 14.65 10.48% 9.54 82.7% 1.21
-1.5 17.3% 5.78 — 82.7% 1.21
-1.0 17.3% 5.78 18.27% 5.47 64.43% 1.55
-0.5 35.57% 2.81 — 64.43% 1.55
0 (PK) 35.57% 2.81 22.97% 4.35 41.46% 2.41
+0.5 58.54% 1.71 — 41.46% 2.41
+1.0 58.54% 1.71 19.88% 5.03 21.58% 4.63
+1.5 78.42% 1.28 — 21.58% 4.63
+2.0 78.42% 1.28 12.42% 8.05 9.16% 10.92

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.