Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
31.46%
Fair Odds 3.18
Draw
24.8%
Fair Odds 4.03
Away Win
43.75%
Fair Odds 2.29
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.48% Fair Odds 9.55

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.18 —
Draw 4.03 —
Away Win 2.29 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.48% 9.55
2 1-2 9.01% 11.1
3 2-1 7.59% 13.17
4 0-1 7.22% 13.84
5 2-2 6.53% 15.31
6 0-2 6.21% 16.09
7 1-0 6.09% 16.42
8 1-3 5.17% 19.36
9 2-0 4.42% 22.65
10 0-0 4.2% 23.81
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.2%
23.81
7.22%
13.84
6.21%
16.09
3.56%
28.07
1.53%
65.28
0.53%
189.79
1
6.09%
16.42
10.48%
9.55
9.01%
11.1
5.17%
19.36
2.22%
45.02
0.76%
130.89
2
4.42%
22.65
7.59%
13.17
6.53%
15.31
3.74%
26.7
1.61%
62.1
0.55%
180.54
3
2.13%
46.86
3.67%
27.24
3.16%
31.68
1.81%
55.25
0.78%
128.49
0.27%
373.55
4
0.77%
129.25
1.33%
75.15
1.14%
87.38
0.66%
152.42
0.28%
354.48
0.1%
1029.87
5
0.22%
445.63
0.39%
259.13
0.33%
301.3
0.19%
525.49
0.08%
1222.49
0.03%
3558.72
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.22% · Fair: 81.98
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.54% 23.46%
1.5 42.53% 57.47%
2.5 17.87% 82.13%
3.5 5.95% 94.05%
4.5 1.63% 98.37%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 82.09% 17.91%
1.5 51.29% 48.71%
2.5 24.81% 75.19%
3.5 9.62% 90.38%
4.5 3.09% 96.91%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.20% 23.81
1 13.32% 7.51
2 21.10% 4.74
3 22.30% 4.48
4 17.67% 5.66
5+ 21.41% 4.67
Over 2.5 61.38% Under 2.5 38.62%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 31.46%
Draw 24.80%
Away Win 43.75%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 61.38%
Under 2.5 38.62%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 62.84%
No 37.16%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.53% 18.09 9.44% 10.59 85.03% 1.18
-1.5 14.97% 6.68 — 85.03% 1.18
-1.0 14.97% 6.68 17.59% 5.69 67.44% 1.48
-0.5 32.56% 3.07 — 67.44% 1.48
0 (PK) 32.56% 3.07 23.33% 4.29 44.11% 2.27
+0.5 55.89% 1.79 — 44.11% 2.27
+1.0 55.89% 1.79 20.86% 4.79 23.25% 4.3
+1.5 76.75% 1.3 — 23.25% 4.3
+2.0 76.75% 1.3 13.29% 7.53 9.96% 10.04

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.