Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
30.78%
Fair Odds 3.25
Draw
24.87%
Fair Odds 4.02
Away Win
44.35%
Fair Odds 2.25
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.57% Fair Odds 9.46

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.25 —
Draw 4.02 —
Away Win 2.25 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.57% 9.46
2 1-2 9.09% 11.0
3 2-1 7.51% 13.32
4 0-1 7.44% 13.43
5 2-2 6.45% 15.49
6 0-2 6.4% 15.62
7 1-0 6.15% 16.27
8 1-3 5.21% 19.19
9 2-0 4.36% 22.92
10 0-0 4.33% 23.1
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.33%
23.1
7.44%
13.43
6.4%
15.62
3.67%
27.24
1.58%
63.36
0.54%
184.16
1
6.15%
16.27
10.57%
9.46
9.09%
11.0
5.21%
19.19
2.24%
44.62
0.77%
129.7
2
4.36%
22.92
7.51%
13.32
6.45%
15.49
3.7%
27.02
1.59%
62.84
0.55%
182.68
3
2.07%
48.41
3.55%
28.15
3.06%
32.73
1.75%
57.09
0.75%
132.77
0.26%
385.95
4
0.73%
136.37
1.26%
79.29
1.08%
92.2
0.62%
160.8
0.27%
373.97
0.09%
1086.96
5
0.21%
480.31
0.36%
279.17
0.31%
324.68
0.18%
566.25
0.08%
1317.52
0.03%
3831.42
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.18% · Fair: 84.46
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.83% 24.17%
1.5 41.51% 58.49%
2.5 17.14% 82.86%
3.5 5.6% 94.4%
4.5 1.51% 98.49%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 82.09% 17.91%
1.5 51.29% 48.71%
2.5 24.81% 75.19%
3.5 9.62% 90.38%
4.5 3.09% 96.91%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.33% 23.10
1 13.59% 7.36
2 21.34% 4.69
3 22.33% 4.48
4 17.53% 5.70
5+ 20.88% 4.79
Over 2.5 60.74% Under 2.5 39.26%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 30.78%
Draw 24.87%
Away Win 44.35%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 60.74%
Under 2.5 39.26%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 62.25%
No 37.75%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.25% 19.05 9.2% 10.87 85.55% 1.17
-1.5 14.45% 6.92 — 85.55% 1.17
-1.0 14.45% 6.92 17.41% 5.74 68.14% 1.47
-0.5 31.86% 3.14 — 68.14% 1.47
0 (PK) 31.86% 3.14 23.4% 4.27 44.74% 2.24
+0.5 55.26% 1.81 — 44.74% 2.24
+1.0 55.26% 1.81 21.09% 4.74 23.65% 4.23
+1.5 76.35% 1.31 — 23.65% 4.23
+2.0 76.35% 1.31 13.49% 7.41 10.16% 9.85

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.