Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
30.55%
Fair Odds 3.27
Draw
24.89%
Fair Odds 4.02
Away Win
44.56%
Fair Odds 2.24
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.6% Fair Odds 9.43

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.27 —
Draw 4.02 —
Away Win 2.24 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.6% 9.43
2 1-2 9.12% 10.97
3 0-1 7.52% 13.3
4 2-1 7.47% 13.38
5 0-2 6.47% 15.46
6 2-2 6.43% 15.56
7 1-0 6.16% 16.22
8 1-3 5.23% 19.13
9 0-0 4.37% 22.87
10 2-0 4.35% 23.01
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.37%
22.87
7.52%
13.3
6.47%
15.46
3.71%
26.97
1.59%
62.72
0.55%
182.35
1
6.16%
16.22
10.6%
9.43
9.12%
10.97
5.23%
19.13
2.25%
44.49
0.77%
129.32
2
4.35%
23.01
7.47%
13.38
6.43%
15.56
3.69%
27.13
1.58%
63.1
0.55%
183.42
3
2.04%
48.96
3.51%
28.46
3.02%
33.1
1.73%
57.73
0.74%
134.26
0.26%
390.32
4
0.72%
138.89
1.24%
80.75
1.06%
93.9
0.61%
163.77
0.26%
380.81
0.09%
1107.42
5
0.2%
492.61
0.35%
286.37
0.3%
333.0
0.17%
580.72
0.07%
1351.35
0.03%
3921.57
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.17% · Fair: 85.3
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.59% 24.41%
1.5 41.16% 58.84%
2.5 16.89% 83.11%
3.5 5.49% 94.51%
4.5 1.47% 98.53%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 82.09% 17.91%
1.5 51.29% 48.71%
2.5 24.81% 75.19%
3.5 9.62% 90.38%
4.5 3.09% 96.91%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.37% 22.87
1 13.68% 7.31
2 21.42% 4.67
3 22.34% 4.48
4 17.48% 5.72
5+ 20.70% 4.83
Over 2.5 60.53% Under 2.5 39.47%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 30.55%
Draw 24.89%
Away Win 44.56%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 60.53%
Under 2.5 39.47%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 62.05%
No 37.95%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.16% 19.39 9.11% 10.97 85.73% 1.17
-1.5 14.27% 7.01 — 85.73% 1.17
-1.0 14.27% 7.01 17.35% 5.76 68.38% 1.46
-0.5 31.62% 3.16 — 68.38% 1.46
0 (PK) 31.62% 3.16 23.42% 4.27 44.95% 2.22
+0.5 55.05% 1.82 — 44.95% 2.22
+1.0 55.05% 1.82 21.17% 4.72 23.79% 4.2
+1.5 76.21% 1.31 — 23.79% 4.2
+2.0 76.21% 1.31 13.56% 7.37 10.22% 9.78

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.