Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
27.12%
Fair Odds 3.69
Draw
25.17%
Fair Odds 3.97
Away Win
47.7%
Fair Odds 2.1
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.01% Fair Odds 9.08

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.69 —
Draw 3.97 —
Away Win 2.1 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.01% 9.08
2 1-2 9.47% 10.56
3 0-1 8.74% 11.45
4 0-2 7.51% 13.31
5 2-1 6.93% 14.42
6 1-0 6.4% 15.63
7 2-2 5.96% 16.77
8 1-3 5.43% 18.42
9 0-0 5.08% 19.69
10 0-3 4.31% 23.21
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.08%
19.69
8.74%
11.45
7.51%
13.31
4.31%
23.21
1.85%
53.99
0.64%
156.94
1
6.4%
15.63
11.01%
9.08
9.47%
10.56
5.43%
18.42
2.33%
42.85
0.8%
124.55
2
4.03%
24.8
6.93%
14.42
5.96%
16.77
3.42%
29.24
1.47%
68.01
0.51%
197.71
3
1.69%
59.05
2.91%
34.33
2.5%
39.92
1.44%
69.63
0.62%
161.94
0.21%
470.81
4
0.53%
187.48
0.92%
108.99
0.79%
126.74
0.45%
221.04
0.19%
514.14
0.07%
1494.77
5
0.13%
744.05
0.23%
432.53
0.2%
503.02
0.11%
877.19
0.05%
2040.82
0.02%
5917.16
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.03% · Fair: 96.74
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 71.63% 28.37%
1.5 35.89% 64.11%
2.5 13.38% 86.62%
3.5 3.92% 96.08%
4.5 0.94% 99.06%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 82.09% 17.91%
1.5 51.29% 48.71%
2.5 24.81% 75.19%
3.5 9.62% 90.38%
4.5 3.09% 96.91%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.08% 19.69
1 15.14% 6.61
2 22.55% 4.43
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.69% 5.99
5+ 18.14% 5.51
Over 2.5 57.23% Under 2.5 42.77%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 27.12%
Draw 25.17%
Away Win 47.70%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.23%
Under 2.5 42.77%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 58.81%
No 41.19%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.88% 25.75 7.86% 12.72 88.26% 1.13
-1.5 11.74% 8.52 — 88.26% 1.13
-1.0 11.74% 8.52 16.34% 6.12 71.91% 1.39
-0.5 28.09% 3.56 — 71.91% 1.39
0 (PK) 28.09% 3.56 23.7% 4.22 48.21% 2.07
+0.5 51.79% 1.93 — 48.21% 2.07
+1.0 51.79% 1.93 22.31% 4.48 25.9% 3.86
+1.5 74.1% 1.35 — 25.9% 3.86
+2.0 74.1% 1.35 14.64% 6.83 11.26% 8.88

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.