Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
17.71%
Fair Odds 5.65
Draw
25.14%
Fair Odds 3.98
Away Win
57.16%
Fair Odds 1.75
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 13.16% Fair Odds 7.6

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 5.65 —
Draw 3.98 —
Away Win 1.75 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 13.16% 7.6
2 0-2 11.32% 8.83
3 1-1 11.19% 8.94
4 1-2 9.62% 10.39
5 0-0 7.65% 13.07
6 1-0 6.51% 15.37
7 0-3 6.49% 15.41
8 1-3 5.52% 18.13
9 2-1 4.76% 21.03
10 2-2 4.09% 24.45
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.65%
13.07
13.16%
7.6
11.32%
8.83
6.49%
15.41
2.79%
35.83
0.96%
104.16
1
6.51%
15.37
11.19%
8.94
9.62%
10.39
5.52%
18.13
2.37%
42.15
0.82%
122.53
2
2.76%
36.17
4.76%
21.03
4.09%
24.45
2.34%
42.65
1.01%
99.18
0.35%
288.35
3
0.78%
127.65
1.35%
74.22
1.16%
86.3
0.66%
150.51
0.29%
350.02
0.1%
1017.29
4
0.17%
600.6
0.29%
349.28
0.25%
406.17
0.14%
708.22
0.06%
1647.45
0.02%
4784.69
5
0.03%
3533.57
0.05%
2053.39
0.04%
2386.63
0.02%
4166.67
0.01%
9708.74
0.0%
27777.78
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.87% · Fair: 115.1
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 57.26% 42.74%
1.5 20.93% 79.07%
2.5 5.49% 94.51%
3.5 1.11% 98.89%
4.5 0.18% 99.82%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 82.09% 17.91%
1.5 51.29% 48.71%
2.5 24.81% 75.19%
3.5 9.62% 90.38%
4.5 3.09% 96.91%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.65% 13.07
1 19.67% 5.08
2 25.28% 3.96
3 21.65% 4.62
4 13.91% 7.19
5+ 11.84% 8.45
Over 2.5 47.4% Under 2.5 52.6%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 17.71%
Draw 25.14%
Away Win 57.16%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 47.4%
Under 2.5 52.6%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 47.01%
No 52.99%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 1.38% 72.56 4.38% 22.81 94.24% 1.06
-1.5 5.76% 17.35 — 94.24% 1.06
-1.0 5.76% 17.35 12.57% 7.95 81.67% 1.22
-0.5 18.33% 5.45 — 81.67% 1.22
0 (PK) 18.33% 5.45 23.66% 4.23 58.0% 1.72
+0.5 42.0% 2.38 — 58.0% 1.72
+1.0 42.0% 2.38 25.44% 3.93 32.56% 3.07
+1.5 67.44% 1.48 — 32.56% 3.07
+2.0 67.44% 1.48 17.95% 5.57 14.61% 6.84

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.