Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
29.8%
Fair Odds 3.36
Draw
25.05%
Fair Odds 3.99
Away Win
45.15%
Fair Odds 2.21
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.77% Fair Odds 9.29

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.36 —
Draw 3.99 —
Away Win 2.21 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.77% 9.29
2 1-2 9.21% 10.86
3 0-1 7.86% 12.72
4 2-1 7.38% 13.56
5 0-2 6.72% 14.88
6 2-2 6.31% 15.86
7 1-0 6.3% 15.88
8 1-3 5.25% 19.06
9 0-0 4.6% 21.76
10 2-0 4.31% 23.19
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.6%
21.76
7.86%
12.72
6.72%
14.88
3.83%
26.11
1.64%
61.07
0.56%
178.57
1
6.3%
15.88
10.77%
9.29
9.21%
10.86
5.25%
19.06
2.24%
44.58
0.77%
130.34
2
4.31%
23.19
7.38%
13.56
6.31%
15.86
3.59%
27.82
1.54%
65.08
0.53%
190.29
3
1.97%
50.77
3.37%
29.69
2.88%
34.73
1.64%
60.92
0.7%
142.51
0.24%
416.67
4
0.67%
148.24
1.15%
86.69
0.99%
101.39
0.56%
177.87
0.24%
416.15
0.08%
1216.55
5
0.18%
541.13
0.32%
316.36
0.27%
370.1
0.15%
649.35
0.07%
1517.45
0.02%
4444.44
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.11% · Fair: 90.29
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.59% 25.41%
1.5 39.78% 60.22%
2.5 15.93% 84.07%
3.5 5.04% 94.96%
4.5 1.31% 98.69%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 81.91% 18.09%
1.5 50.99% 49.01%
2.5 24.54% 75.46%
3.5 9.47% 90.53%
4.5 3.03% 96.97%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.60% 21.76
1 14.16% 7.06
2 21.80% 4.59
3 22.38% 4.47
4 17.23% 5.80
5+ 19.84% 5.04
Over 2.5 59.45% Under 2.5 40.55%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 29.80%
Draw 25.05%
Away Win 45.15%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 59.45%
Under 2.5 40.55%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 61.1%
No 38.9%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.83% 20.69 8.84% 11.32 86.33% 1.16
-1.5 13.67% 7.31 — 86.33% 1.16
-1.0 13.67% 7.31 17.18% 5.82 69.14% 1.45
-0.5 30.86% 3.24 — 69.14% 1.45
0 (PK) 30.86% 3.24 23.57% 4.24 45.57% 2.19
+0.5 54.43% 1.84 — 45.57% 2.19
+1.0 54.43% 1.84 21.45% 4.66 24.12% 4.15
+1.5 75.88% 1.32 — 24.12% 4.15
+2.0 75.88% 1.32 13.77% 7.26 10.35% 9.66

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.