Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
40.25%
Fair Odds 2.48
Draw
23.77%
Fair Odds 4.21
Away Win
35.98%
Fair Odds 2.78
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.32% Fair Odds 10.73

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.48 —
Draw 4.21 —
Away Win 2.78 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.32% 10.73
2 2-1 8.3% 12.05
3 1-2 7.92% 12.62
4 2-2 7.05% 14.18
5 1-0 5.48% 18.24
6 0-1 5.24% 19.09
7 3-1 4.92% 20.31
8 2-0 4.88% 20.49
9 1-3 4.49% 22.27
10 0-2 4.45% 22.46
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.08%
32.46
5.24%
19.09
4.45%
22.46
2.52%
39.64
1.07%
93.27
0.36%
274.35
1
5.48%
18.24
9.32%
10.73
7.92%
12.62
4.49%
22.27
1.91%
52.4
0.65%
154.13
2
4.88%
20.49
8.3%
12.05
7.05%
14.18
4.0%
25.02
1.7%
58.88
0.58%
173.16
3
2.9%
34.53
4.92%
20.31
4.18%
23.9
2.37%
42.17
1.01%
99.24
0.34%
291.89
4
1.29%
77.6
2.19%
45.65
1.86%
53.7
1.06%
94.77
0.45%
223.02
0.15%
655.74
5
0.46%
218.01
0.78%
128.22
0.66%
150.85
0.38%
266.24
0.16%
626.57
0.05%
1841.62
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.78% · Fair: 56.23
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 83.14% 16.86%
1.5 53.12% 46.88%
2.5 26.4% 73.6%
3.5 10.55% 89.45%
4.5 3.5% 96.5%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 81.73% 18.27%
1.5 50.68% 49.32%
2.5 24.28% 75.72%
3.5 9.32% 90.68%
4.5 2.96% 97.04%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.08% 32.46
1 10.72% 9.33
2 18.65% 5.36
3 21.64% 4.62
4 18.83% 5.31
5+ 27.08% 3.69
Over 2.5 67.54% Under 2.5 32.46%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 40.25%
Draw 23.77%
Away Win 35.98%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 67.54%
Under 2.5 32.46%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 67.95%
No 32.05%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.19% 10.88 12.09% 8.27 78.72% 1.27
-1.5 21.28% 4.7 — 78.72% 1.27
-1.0 21.28% 4.7 19.2% 5.21 59.52% 1.68
-0.5 40.48% 2.47 — 59.52% 1.68
0 (PK) 40.48% 2.47 22.33% 4.48 37.19% 2.69
+0.5 62.81% 1.59 — 37.19% 2.69
+1.0 62.81% 1.59 18.33% 5.45 18.85% 5.3
+1.5 81.15% 1.23 — 18.85% 5.3
+2.0 81.15% 1.23 11.03% 9.07 7.82% 12.78

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.