Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
30.88%
Fair Odds 3.24
Draw
25.02%
Fair Odds 4.0
Away Win
44.1%
Fair Odds 2.27
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.69% Fair Odds 9.35

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.24 —
Draw 4.0 —
Away Win 2.27 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.69% 9.35
2 1-2 9.09% 11.0
3 0-1 7.58% 13.19
4 2-1 7.54% 13.27
5 0-2 6.44% 15.52
6 2-2 6.41% 15.61
7 1-0 6.29% 15.9
8 1-3 5.15% 19.42
9 0-0 4.46% 22.42
10 2-0 4.43% 22.56
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.46%
22.42
7.58%
13.19
6.44%
15.52
3.65%
27.38
1.55%
64.43
0.53%
189.5
1
6.29%
15.9
10.69%
9.35
9.09%
11.0
5.15%
19.42
2.19%
45.69
0.74%
134.39
2
4.43%
22.56
7.54%
13.27
6.41%
15.61
3.63%
27.55
1.54%
64.81
0.52%
190.62
3
2.08%
47.99
3.54%
28.23
3.01%
33.21
1.71%
58.61
0.73%
137.89
0.25%
405.52
4
0.73%
136.15
1.25%
80.08
1.06%
94.22
0.6%
166.25
0.26%
391.24
0.09%
1150.75
5
0.21%
482.86
0.35%
284.01
0.3%
334.11
0.17%
589.62
0.07%
1386.96
0.02%
4081.63
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.13% · Fair: 88.63
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.59% 24.41%
1.5 41.16% 58.84%
2.5 16.89% 83.11%
3.5 5.49% 94.51%
4.5 1.47% 98.53%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 81.73% 18.27%
1.5 50.68% 49.32%
2.5 24.28% 75.72%
3.5 9.32% 90.68%
4.5 2.96% 97.04%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.46% 22.42
1 13.87% 7.21
2 21.57% 4.64
3 22.36% 4.47
4 17.38% 5.75
5+ 20.35% 4.91
Over 2.5 60.1% Under 2.5 39.9%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 30.88%
Draw 25.02%
Away Win 44.10%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 60.1%
Under 2.5 39.9%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 61.78%
No 38.22%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.23% 19.12 9.23% 10.84 85.54% 1.17
-1.5 14.46% 6.92 — 85.54% 1.17
-1.0 14.46% 6.92 17.52% 5.71 68.03% 1.47
-0.5 31.97% 3.13 — 68.03% 1.47
0 (PK) 31.97% 3.13 23.55% 4.25 44.48% 2.25
+0.5 55.52% 1.8 — 44.48% 2.25
+1.0 55.52% 1.8 21.12% 4.74 23.36% 4.28
+1.5 76.64% 1.3 — 23.36% 4.28
+2.0 76.64% 1.3 13.41% 7.46 9.95% 10.05

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.