Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
41.94%
Fair Odds 2.38
Draw
23.5%
Fair Odds 4.25
Away Win
34.56%
Fair Odds 2.89
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.07% Fair Odds 11.02

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.38 —
Draw 4.25 —
Away Win 2.89 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.07% 11.02
2 2-1 8.39% 11.92
3 1-2 7.67% 13.05
4 2-2 7.09% 14.1
5 1-0 5.37% 18.63
6 3-1 5.17% 19.33
7 2-0 4.96% 20.14
8 0-1 4.9% 20.39
9 3-2 4.37% 22.87
10 1-3 4.32% 23.16
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.9%
34.47
4.9%
20.39
4.14%
24.14
2.33%
42.84
0.99%
101.41
0.33%
300.03
1
5.37%
18.63
9.07%
11.02
7.67%
13.05
4.32%
23.16
1.82%
54.82
0.62%
162.18
2
4.96%
20.14
8.39%
11.92
7.09%
14.1
3.99%
25.04
1.69%
59.26
0.57%
175.32
3
3.06%
32.66
5.17%
19.33
4.37%
22.87
2.46%
40.6
1.04%
96.1
0.35%
284.33
4
1.42%
70.62
2.39%
41.79
2.02%
49.45
1.14%
87.78
0.48%
207.77
0.16%
614.63
5
0.52%
190.88
0.89%
112.93
0.75%
133.65
0.42%
237.25
0.18%
561.48
0.06%
1661.13
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.94% · Fair: 51.47
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 84.28% 15.72%
1.5 55.19% 44.81%
2.5 28.28% 71.72%
3.5 11.69% 88.31%
4.5 4.01% 95.99%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 81.55% 18.45%
1.5 50.36% 49.64%
2.5 24.01% 75.99%
3.5 9.17% 90.83%
4.5 2.9% 97.1%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.90% 34.47
1 10.27% 9.74
2 18.18% 5.50
3 21.45% 4.66
4 18.98% 5.27
5+ 28.21% 3.54
Over 2.5 68.65% Under 2.5 31.35%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 41.94%
Draw 23.50%
Away Win 34.56%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 68.65%
Under 2.5 31.35%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 68.73%
No 31.27%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.11% 9.89 12.64% 7.91 77.24% 1.29
-1.5 22.76% 4.39 — 77.24% 1.29
-1.0 22.76% 4.39 19.47% 5.14 57.77% 1.73
-0.5 42.23% 2.37 — 57.77% 1.73
0 (PK) 42.23% 2.37 22.07% 4.53 35.7% 2.8
+0.5 64.3% 1.56 — 35.7% 2.8
+1.0 64.3% 1.56 17.78% 5.62 17.92% 5.58
+1.5 82.08% 1.22 — 17.92% 5.58
+2.0 82.08% 1.22 10.55% 9.48 7.37% 13.57

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.