Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
35.81%
Fair Odds 2.79
Draw
24.43%
Fair Odds 4.09
Away Win
39.76%
Fair Odds 2.51
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.0% Fair Odds 10.0

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.79 —
Draw 4.09 —
Away Win 2.51 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.0% 10.0
2 1-2 8.45% 11.84
3 2-1 8.1% 12.35
4 2-2 6.84% 14.61
5 0-1 6.17% 16.2
6 1-0 5.92% 16.9
7 0-2 5.21% 19.18
8 2-0 4.79% 20.87
9 1-3 4.76% 21.01
10 3-1 4.37% 22.87
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.65%
27.39
6.17%
16.2
5.21%
19.18
2.94%
34.04
1.24%
80.57
0.42%
238.38
1
5.92%
16.9
10.0%
10.0
8.45%
11.84
4.76%
21.01
2.01%
49.73
0.68%
147.15
2
4.79%
20.87
8.1%
12.35
6.84%
14.61
3.85%
25.94
1.63%
61.4
0.55%
181.65
3
2.59%
38.65
4.37%
22.87
3.7%
27.06
2.08%
48.04
0.88%
113.7
0.3%
336.36
4
1.05%
95.43
1.77%
56.47
1.5%
66.82
0.84%
118.62
0.36%
280.74
0.12%
830.56
5
0.34%
294.55
0.57%
174.28
0.48%
206.23
0.27%
366.17
0.12%
866.55
0.04%
2564.1
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.41% · Fair: 70.75
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.21% 19.79%
1.5 48.15% 51.85%
2.5 22.18% 77.82%
3.5 8.16% 91.84%
4.5 2.48% 97.52%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 81.55% 18.45%
1.5 50.36% 49.64%
2.5 24.01% 75.99%
3.5 9.17% 90.83%
4.5 2.9% 97.1%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.65% 27.39
1 12.09% 8.27
2 20.00% 5.00
3 22.07% 4.53
4 18.26% 5.48
5+ 23.92% 4.18
Over 2.5 64.26% Under 2.5 35.74%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 35.81%
Draw 24.43%
Away Win 39.76%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 64.26%
Under 2.5 35.74%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 65.41%
No 34.59%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.4% 13.52 10.97% 9.12 81.64% 1.22
-1.5 18.36% 5.45 — 81.64% 1.22
-1.0 18.36% 5.45 18.68% 5.35 62.96% 1.59
-0.5 37.04% 2.7 — 62.96% 1.59
0 (PK) 37.04% 2.7 22.97% 4.35 39.99% 2.5
+0.5 60.01% 1.67 — 39.99% 2.5
+1.0 60.01% 1.67 19.49% 5.13 20.5% 4.88
+1.5 79.5% 1.26 — 20.5% 4.88
+2.0 79.5% 1.26 11.94% 8.38 8.56% 11.68

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.