Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
28.98%
Fair Odds 3.45
Draw
25.29%
Fair Odds 3.95
Away Win
45.73%
Fair Odds 2.19
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.0% Fair Odds 9.09

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.45 —
Draw 3.95 —
Away Win 2.19 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.0% 9.09
2 1-2 9.29% 10.76
3 0-1 8.33% 12.0
4 2-1 7.26% 13.78
5 0-2 7.04% 14.21
6 1-0 6.51% 15.37
7 2-2 6.13% 16.31
8 1-3 5.23% 19.1
9 0-0 4.93% 20.29
10 2-0 4.29% 23.29
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.93%
20.29
8.33%
12.0
7.04%
14.21
3.97%
25.22
1.68%
59.69
0.57%
176.58
1
6.51%
15.37
11.0%
9.09
9.29%
10.76
5.23%
19.1
2.21%
45.22
0.75%
133.78
2
4.29%
23.29
7.26%
13.78
6.13%
16.31
3.45%
28.95
1.46%
68.51
0.49%
202.72
3
1.89%
52.92
3.19%
31.32
2.7%
37.06
1.52%
65.79
0.64%
155.71
0.22%
460.62
4
0.62%
160.38
1.05%
94.89
0.89%
112.31
0.5%
199.36
0.21%
471.92
0.07%
1396.65
5
0.16%
607.53
0.28%
359.45
0.24%
425.35
0.13%
755.29
0.06%
1788.91
0.02%
5291.01
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.02% · Fair: 98.33
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.29% 26.71%
1.5 38.02% 61.98%
2.5 14.75% 85.25%
3.5 4.51% 95.49%
4.5 1.13% 98.87%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 81.55% 18.45%
1.5 50.36% 49.64%
2.5 24.01% 75.99%
3.5 9.17% 90.83%
4.5 2.9% 97.1%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.93% 20.29
1 14.84% 6.74
2 22.33% 4.48
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.86% 5.93
5+ 18.64% 5.36
Over 2.5 57.9% Under 2.5 42.1%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 28.98%
Draw 25.29%
Away Win 45.73%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.9%
Under 2.5 42.1%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.76%
No 40.24%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.47% 22.39 8.52% 11.73 87.01% 1.15
-1.5 12.99% 7.7 — 87.01% 1.15
-1.0 12.99% 7.7 17.02% 5.87 69.99% 1.43
-0.5 30.01% 3.33 — 69.99% 1.43
0 (PK) 30.01% 3.33 23.81% 4.2 46.18% 2.17
+0.5 53.82% 1.86 — 46.18% 2.17
+1.0 53.82% 1.86 21.8% 4.59 24.38% 4.1
+1.5 75.62% 1.32 — 24.38% 4.1
+2.0 75.62% 1.32 13.97% 7.16 10.41% 9.61

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.