Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
39.97%
Fair Odds 2.5
Draw
23.96%
Fair Odds 4.17
Away Win
36.07%
Fair Odds 2.77
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.52% Fair Odds 10.5

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.5 —
Draw 4.17 —
Away Win 2.77 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.52% 10.5
2 2-1 8.33% 12.0
3 1-2 8.0% 12.5
4 2-2 7.0% 14.29
5 1-0 5.67% 17.64
6 0-1 5.44% 18.38
7 2-0 4.96% 20.16
8 3-1 4.86% 20.58
9 0-2 4.57% 21.88
10 1-3 4.48% 22.33
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.24%
30.88
5.44%
18.38
4.57%
21.88
2.56%
39.07
1.07%
93.02
0.36%
276.85
1
5.67%
17.64
9.52%
10.5
8.0%
12.5
4.48%
22.33
1.88%
53.16
0.63%
158.2
2
4.96%
20.16
8.33%
12.0
7.0%
14.29
3.92%
25.52
1.65%
60.75
0.55%
180.8
3
2.89%
34.57
4.86%
20.58
4.08%
24.49
2.29%
43.74
0.96%
104.14
0.32%
309.98
4
1.27%
79.01
2.13%
47.03
1.79%
55.99
1.0%
99.98
0.42%
238.04
0.14%
708.72
5
0.44%
225.73
0.74%
134.37
0.63%
159.97
0.35%
285.63
0.15%
680.27
0.05%
2024.29
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.66% · Fair: 60.12
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 82.62% 17.38%
1.5 52.21% 47.79%
2.5 25.6% 74.4%
3.5 10.08% 89.92%
4.5 3.29% 96.71%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 81.36% 18.64%
1.5 50.05% 49.95%
2.5 23.75% 76.25%
3.5 9.02% 90.98%
4.5 2.84% 97.16%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.24% 30.88
1 11.11% 9.00
2 19.05% 5.25
3 21.78% 4.59
4 18.68% 5.35
5+ 26.14% 3.83
Over 2.5 66.6% Under 2.5 33.4%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 39.97%
Draw 23.96%
Away Win 36.07%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 66.6%
Under 2.5 33.4%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 67.22%
No 32.78%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.94% 11.18 12.0% 8.33 79.05% 1.26
-1.5 20.94% 4.77 — 79.05% 1.26
-1.0 20.94% 4.77 19.24% 5.2 59.81% 1.67
-0.5 40.19% 2.49 — 59.81% 1.67
0 (PK) 40.19% 2.49 22.52% 4.44 37.29% 2.68
+0.5 62.71% 1.59 — 37.29% 2.68
+1.0 62.71% 1.59 18.47% 5.41 18.82% 5.31
+1.5 81.18% 1.23 — 18.82% 5.31
+2.0 81.18% 1.23 11.06% 9.04 7.76% 12.89

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.