Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.1%
Fair Odds 2.7
Draw
24.28%
Fair Odds 4.12
Away Win
38.61%
Fair Odds 2.59
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.84% Fair Odds 10.16

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.7 —
Draw 4.12 —
Away Win 2.59 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.84% 10.16
2 1-2 8.27% 12.09
3 2-1 8.22% 12.17
4 2-2 6.9% 14.48
5 0-1 5.89% 16.97
6 1-0 5.86% 17.07
7 0-2 4.95% 20.2
8 2-0 4.89% 20.44
9 1-3 4.63% 21.6
10 3-1 4.58% 21.86
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.51%
28.5
5.89%
16.97
4.95%
20.2
2.77%
36.07
1.16%
85.87
0.39%
255.56
1
5.86%
17.07
9.84%
10.16
8.27%
12.09
4.63%
21.6
1.94%
51.42
0.65%
153.05
2
4.89%
20.44
8.22%
12.17
6.9%
14.48
3.87%
25.86
1.62%
61.58
0.55%
183.28
3
2.72%
36.72
4.58%
21.86
3.84%
26.02
2.15%
46.46
0.9%
110.63
0.3%
329.27
4
1.14%
87.95
1.91%
52.35
1.6%
62.32
0.9%
111.28
0.38%
264.97
0.13%
788.64
5
0.38%
263.3
0.64%
156.74
0.54%
186.6
0.3%
333.22
0.13%
793.65
0.04%
2358.49
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.49% · Fair: 67.17
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.18% 18.82%
1.5 49.74% 50.26%
2.5 23.49% 76.51%
3.5 8.88% 91.12%
4.5 2.77% 97.23%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 81.36% 18.64%
1.5 50.05% 49.95%
2.5 23.75% 76.25%
3.5 9.02% 90.98%
4.5 2.84% 97.16%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.51% 28.50
1 11.75% 8.51
2 19.69% 5.08
3 21.98% 4.55
4 18.41% 5.43
5+ 24.66% 4.06
Over 2.5 65.05% Under 2.5 34.95%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.10%
Draw 24.28%
Away Win 38.61%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 65.05%
Under 2.5 34.95%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 66.05%
No 33.95%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.01% 12.49 11.41% 8.76 80.58% 1.24
-1.5 19.42% 5.15 — 80.58% 1.24
-1.0 19.42% 5.15 18.96% 5.27 61.62% 1.62
-0.5 38.37% 2.61 — 61.62% 1.62
0 (PK) 38.37% 2.61 22.83% 4.38 38.79% 2.58
+0.5 61.21% 1.63 — 38.79% 2.58
+1.0 61.21% 1.63 19.07% 5.24 19.72% 5.07
+1.5 80.28% 1.25 — 19.72% 5.07
+2.0 80.28% 1.25 11.55% 8.66 8.17% 12.23

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.