Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
36.39%
Fair Odds 2.75
Draw
24.48%
Fair Odds 4.09
Away Win
39.13%
Fair Odds 2.56
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.04% Fair Odds 9.96

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.75 —
Draw 4.09 —
Away Win 2.56 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.04% 9.96
2 1-2 8.38% 11.93
3 2-1 8.18% 12.22
4 2-2 6.83% 14.64
5 0-1 6.16% 16.24
6 1-0 6.01% 16.63
7 0-2 5.14% 19.44
8 2-0 4.9% 20.41
9 1-3 4.67% 21.43
10 3-1 4.45% 22.49
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.69%
27.11
6.16%
16.24
5.14%
19.44
2.86%
34.93
1.2%
83.66
0.4%
250.5
1
6.01%
16.63
10.04%
9.96
8.38%
11.93
4.67%
21.43
1.95%
51.32
0.65%
153.66
2
4.9%
20.41
8.18%
12.22
6.83%
14.64
3.8%
26.29
1.59%
62.98
0.53%
188.54
3
2.66%
37.56
4.45%
22.49
3.71%
26.94
2.07%
48.39
0.86%
115.9
0.29%
346.98
4
1.08%
92.18
1.81%
55.2
1.51%
66.1
0.84%
118.75
0.35%
284.41
0.12%
851.79
5
0.35%
282.73
0.59%
169.32
0.49%
202.76
0.27%
364.3
0.11%
872.6
0.04%
2610.97
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.39% · Fair: 71.93
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.41% 19.59%
1.5 48.47% 51.53%
2.5 22.44% 77.56%
3.5 8.3% 91.7%
4.5 2.54% 97.46%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 81.18% 18.82%
1.5 49.74% 50.26%
2.5 23.49% 76.51%
3.5 8.88% 91.12%
4.5 2.77% 97.23%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.69% 27.11
1 12.17% 8.22
2 20.08% 4.98
3 22.09% 4.53
4 18.23% 5.49
5+ 23.74% 4.21
Over 2.5 64.06% Under 2.5 35.94%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 36.39%
Draw 24.48%
Away Win 39.13%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 64.06%
Under 2.5 35.94%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 65.27%
No 34.73%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.61% 13.15 11.17% 8.96 81.23% 1.23
-1.5 18.77% 5.33 — 81.23% 1.23
-1.0 18.77% 5.33 18.87% 5.3 62.35% 1.6
-0.5 37.65% 2.66 — 62.35% 1.6
0 (PK) 37.65% 2.66 23.02% 4.34 39.33% 2.54
+0.5 60.67% 1.65 — 39.33% 2.54
+1.0 60.67% 1.65 19.34% 5.17 19.99% 5.0
+1.5 80.01% 1.25 — 19.99% 5.0
+2.0 80.01% 1.25 11.72% 8.53 8.27% 12.09

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.