Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
32.53%
Fair Odds 3.07
Draw
25.06%
Fair Odds 3.99
Away Win
42.41%
Fair Odds 2.36
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.66% Fair Odds 9.38

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.07 —
Draw 3.99 —
Away Win 2.36 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.66% 9.38
2 1-2 8.9% 11.24
3 2-1 7.78% 12.85
4 0-1 7.3% 13.7
5 2-2 6.5% 15.39
6 1-0 6.38% 15.67
7 0-2 6.1% 16.4
8 1-3 4.95% 20.18
9 2-0 4.66% 21.46
10 0-0 4.37% 22.87
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.37%
22.87
7.3%
13.7
6.1%
16.4
3.39%
29.47
1.42%
70.58
0.47%
211.33
1
6.38%
15.67
10.66%
9.38
8.9%
11.24
4.95%
20.18
2.07%
48.34
0.69%
144.74
2
4.66%
21.46
7.78%
12.85
6.5%
15.39
3.62%
27.65
1.51%
66.23
0.5%
198.26
3
2.27%
44.1
3.79%
26.41
3.16%
31.62
1.76%
56.81
0.73%
136.07
0.25%
407.33
4
0.83%
120.82
1.38%
72.35
1.15%
86.65
0.64%
155.64
0.27%
372.86
0.09%
1116.07
5
0.24%
413.74
0.4%
247.77
0.34%
296.74
0.19%
533.05
0.08%
1277.14
0.03%
3816.79
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.13% · Fair: 88.86
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.78% 23.22%
1.5 42.87% 57.13%
2.5 18.12% 81.88%
3.5 6.07% 93.93%
4.5 1.68% 98.32%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 81.18% 18.82%
1.5 49.74% 50.26%
2.5 23.49% 76.51%
3.5 8.88% 91.12%
4.5 2.77% 97.23%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.37% 22.87
1 13.68% 7.31
2 21.41% 4.67
3 22.34% 4.48
4 17.48% 5.72
5+ 20.70% 4.83
Over 2.5 60.53% Under 2.5 39.47%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 32.53%
Draw 25.06%
Away Win 42.41%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 60.53%
Under 2.5 39.47%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 62.32%
No 37.68%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.82% 17.18 9.81% 10.2 84.37% 1.19
-1.5 15.63% 6.4 — 84.37% 1.19
-1.0 15.63% 6.4 18.05% 5.54 66.32% 1.51
-0.5 33.68% 2.97 — 66.32% 1.51
0 (PK) 33.68% 2.97 23.58% 4.24 42.73% 2.34
+0.5 57.27% 1.75 — 42.73% 2.34
+1.0 57.27% 1.75 20.65% 4.84 22.08% 4.53
+1.5 77.92% 1.28 — 22.08% 4.53
+2.0 77.92% 1.28 12.83% 7.79 9.25% 10.81

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.