Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
20.18%
Fair Odds 4.96
Draw
25.78%
Fair Odds 3.88
Away Win
54.04%
Fair Odds 1.85
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 12.4% Fair Odds 8.06

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.96 —
Draw 3.88 —
Away Win 1.85 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 12.4% 8.06
2 1-1 11.54% 8.67
3 0-2 10.36% 9.66
4 1-2 9.63% 10.38
5 0-0 7.43% 13.46
6 1-0 6.91% 14.48
7 0-3 5.77% 17.34
8 2-1 5.36% 18.64
9 1-3 5.36% 18.65
10 2-2 4.48% 22.33
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
12.4%
8.06
10.36%
9.66
5.77%
17.34
2.41%
41.54
0.8%
124.38
1
6.91%
14.48
11.54%
8.67
9.63%
10.38
5.36%
18.65
2.24%
44.67
0.75%
133.74
2
3.21%
31.13
5.36%
18.64
4.48%
22.33
2.49%
40.11
1.04%
96.07
0.35%
287.6
3
1.0%
100.43
1.66%
60.14
1.39%
72.02
0.77%
129.38
0.32%
309.89
0.11%
927.64
4
0.23%
431.97
0.39%
258.67
0.32%
309.79
0.18%
556.48
0.07%
1333.33
0.03%
3984.06
5
0.04%
2320.19
0.07%
1390.82
0.06%
1666.67
0.03%
2994.01
0.01%
7142.86
0.0%
21276.6
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.78% · Fair: 128.68
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 60.54% 39.46%
1.5 23.85% 76.15%
2.5 6.79% 93.21%
3.5 1.5% 98.5%
4.5 0.27% 99.73%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 81.18% 18.82%
1.5 49.74% 50.26%
2.5 23.49% 76.51%
3.5 8.88% 91.12%
4.5 2.77% 97.23%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 20.18%
Draw 25.78%
Away Win 54.04%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 49.15%
No 50.85%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 1.83% 54.75 5.23% 19.11 92.94% 1.08
-1.5 7.06% 14.17 — 92.94% 1.08
-1.0 7.06% 14.17 13.85% 7.22 79.09% 1.26
-0.5 20.91% 4.78 — 79.09% 1.26
0 (PK) 20.91% 4.78 24.29% 4.12 54.79% 1.83
+0.5 45.21% 2.21 — 54.79% 1.83
+1.0 45.21% 2.21 24.88% 4.02 29.91% 3.34
+1.5 70.09% 1.43 — 29.91% 3.34
+2.0 70.09% 1.43 16.87% 5.93 13.04% 7.67

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.