Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
39.02%
Fair Odds 2.56
Draw
24.28%
Fair Odds 4.12
Away Win
36.7%
Fair Odds 2.72
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.84% Fair Odds 10.16

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.56 —
Draw 4.12 —
Away Win 2.72 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.84% 10.16
2 2-1 8.32% 12.02
3 1-2 8.17% 12.24
4 2-2 6.9% 14.49
5 1-0 5.93% 16.87
6 0-1 5.82% 17.17
7 2-0 5.01% 19.96
8 0-2 4.83% 20.69
9 3-1 4.69% 21.34
10 1-3 4.52% 22.12
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.51%
28.5
5.82%
17.17
4.83%
20.69
2.67%
37.39
1.11%
90.09
0.37%
271.37
1
5.93%
16.87
9.84%
10.16
8.17%
12.24
4.52%
22.12
1.88%
53.3
0.62%
160.57
2
5.01%
19.96
8.32%
12.02
6.9%
14.49
3.82%
26.18
1.59%
63.08
0.53%
190.01
3
2.82%
35.43
4.69%
21.34
3.89%
25.72
2.15%
46.47
0.89%
111.98
0.3%
337.27
4
1.19%
83.86
1.98%
50.52
1.64%
60.86
0.91%
110.0
0.38%
265.04
0.13%
798.08
5
0.4%
248.08
0.67%
149.45
0.56%
180.08
0.31%
325.41
0.13%
784.31
0.04%
2364.07
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.49% · Fair: 67.14
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.55% 18.45%
1.5 50.36% 49.64%
2.5 24.01% 75.99%
3.5 9.17% 90.83%
4.5 2.9% 97.1%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 80.99% 19.01%
1.5 49.42% 50.58%
2.5 23.23% 76.77%
3.5 8.73% 91.27%
4.5 2.71% 97.29%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.51% 28.50
1 11.75% 8.51
2 19.69% 5.08
3 21.98% 4.55
4 18.41% 5.43
5+ 24.66% 4.06
Over 2.5 65.05% Under 2.5 34.95%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 39.02%
Draw 24.28%
Away Win 36.70%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 65.05%
Under 2.5 34.95%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 66.04%
No 33.96%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.34% 11.98 11.68% 8.56 79.97% 1.25
-1.5 20.03% 4.99 — 79.97% 1.25
-1.0 20.03% 4.99 19.18% 5.21 60.79% 1.65
-0.5 39.21% 2.55 — 60.79% 1.65
0 (PK) 39.21% 2.55 22.83% 4.38 37.96% 2.63
+0.5 62.04% 1.61 — 37.96% 2.63
+1.0 62.04% 1.61 18.84% 5.31 19.11% 5.23
+1.5 80.89% 1.24 — 19.11% 5.23
+2.0 80.89% 1.24 11.27% 8.87 7.84% 12.75

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.