Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
29.0%
Fair Odds 3.45
Draw
25.54%
Fair Odds 3.92
Away Win
45.46%
Fair Odds 2.2
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.18% Fair Odds 8.94

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.45 —
Draw 3.92 —
Away Win 2.2 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.18% 8.94
2 1-2 9.28% 10.77
3 0-1 8.6% 11.63
4 2-1 7.27% 13.76
5 0-2 7.14% 14.01
6 1-0 6.74% 14.84
7 2-2 6.03% 16.58
8 0-0 5.18% 19.3
9 1-3 5.14% 19.47
10 2-0 4.38% 22.84
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.18%
19.3
8.6%
11.63
7.14%
14.01
3.95%
25.31
1.64%
60.99
0.54%
183.72
1
6.74%
14.84
11.18%
8.94
9.28%
10.77
5.14%
19.47
2.13%
46.92
0.71%
141.32
2
4.38%
22.84
7.27%
13.76
6.03%
16.58
3.34%
29.96
1.39%
72.18
0.46%
217.44
3
1.9%
52.7
3.15%
31.75
2.61%
38.25
1.45%
69.13
0.6%
166.58
0.2%
501.76
4
0.62%
162.15
1.02%
97.68
0.85%
117.7
0.47%
212.72
0.2%
512.56
0.06%
1543.21
5
0.16%
623.83
0.27%
375.66
0.22%
452.69
0.12%
818.33
0.05%
1972.39
0.02%
5952.38
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.94% · Fair: 106.58
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 72.75% 27.25%
1.5 37.32% 62.68%
2.5 14.29% 85.71%
3.5 4.31% 95.69%
4.5 1.07% 98.93%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 80.99% 19.01%
1.5 49.42% 50.58%
2.5 23.23% 76.77%
3.5 8.73% 91.27%
4.5 2.71% 97.29%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.18% 19.30
1 15.34% 6.52
2 22.70% 4.41
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.57% 6.03
5+ 17.81% 5.62
Over 2.5 56.78% Under 2.5 43.22%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 29.00%
Draw 25.54%
Away Win 45.46%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 56.78%
Under 2.5 43.22%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 58.91%
No 41.09%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.39% 22.77 8.51% 11.75 87.1% 1.15
-1.5 12.9% 7.75 — 87.1% 1.15
-1.0 12.9% 7.75 17.14% 5.83 69.95% 1.43
-0.5 30.05% 3.33 — 69.95% 1.43
0 (PK) 30.05% 3.33 24.06% 4.16 45.9% 2.18
+0.5 54.1% 1.85 — 45.9% 2.18
+1.0 54.1% 1.85 21.89% 4.57 24.0% 4.17
+1.5 76.0% 1.32 — 24.0% 4.17
+2.0 76.0% 1.32 13.88% 7.21 10.12% 9.88

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.