Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
41.62%
Fair Odds 2.4
Draw
23.84%
Fair Odds 4.2
Away Win
34.55%
Fair Odds 2.89
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.43% Fair Odds 10.61

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.4 —
Draw 4.2 —
Away Win 2.89 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.43% 10.61
2 2-1 8.49% 11.78
3 1-2 7.78% 12.86
4 2-2 7.0% 14.28
5 1-0 5.71% 17.5
6 0-1 5.24% 19.09
7 2-0 5.14% 19.44
8 3-1 5.09% 19.64
9 0-2 4.32% 23.14
10 1-3 4.28% 23.37
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.17%
31.5
5.24%
19.09
4.32%
23.14
2.38%
42.07
0.98%
102.0
0.32%
309.12
1
5.71%
17.5
9.43%
10.61
7.78%
12.86
4.28%
23.37
1.76%
56.67
0.58%
171.7
2
5.14%
19.44
8.49%
11.78
7.0%
14.28
3.85%
25.97
1.59%
62.96
0.52%
190.8
3
3.09%
32.41
5.09%
19.64
4.2%
23.81
2.31%
43.29
0.95%
104.93
0.31%
317.97
4
1.39%
72.01
2.29%
43.65
1.89%
52.9
1.04%
96.19
0.43%
233.21
0.14%
706.71
5
0.5%
200.04
0.82%
121.24
0.68%
146.95
0.37%
267.17
0.15%
647.67
0.05%
1964.64
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.73% · Fair: 57.9
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 83.47% 16.53%
1.5 53.72% 46.28%
2.5 26.94% 73.06%
3.5 10.87% 89.13%
4.5 3.64% 96.36%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 80.79% 19.2%
1.5 49.11% 50.89%
2.5 22.96% 77.04%
3.5 8.59% 91.41%
4.5 2.65% 97.35%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.17% 31.50
1 10.95% 9.13
2 18.89% 5.29
3 21.73% 4.60
4 18.74% 5.34
5+ 26.51% 3.77
Over 2.5 66.98% Under 2.5 33.02%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 41.62%
Draw 23.84%
Away Win 34.55%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 66.98%
Under 2.5 33.02%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 67.44%
No 32.56%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.74% 10.27 12.55% 7.97 77.72% 1.29
-1.5 22.28% 4.49 — 77.72% 1.29
-1.0 22.28% 4.49 19.61% 5.1 58.1% 1.72
-0.5 41.89% 2.39 — 58.1% 1.72
0 (PK) 41.89% 2.39 22.4% 4.46 35.71% 2.8
+0.5 64.29% 1.56 — 35.71% 2.8
+1.0 64.29% 1.56 17.98% 5.56 17.73% 5.64
+1.5 82.27% 1.22 — 17.73% 5.64
+2.0 82.27% 1.22 10.54% 9.48 7.19% 13.92

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.