Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
41.18%
Fair Odds 2.43
Draw
23.93%
Fair Odds 4.18
Away Win
34.89%
Fair Odds 2.87
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.51% Fair Odds 10.51

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.43 —
Draw 4.18 —
Away Win 2.87 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.51% 10.51
2 2-1 8.47% 11.81
3 1-2 7.85% 12.74
4 2-2 6.98% 14.32
5 1-0 5.76% 17.35
6 0-1 5.34% 18.71
7 2-0 5.13% 19.49
8 3-1 5.02% 19.91
9 0-2 4.41% 22.68
10 1-3 4.32% 23.17
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.24%
30.88
5.34%
18.71
4.41%
22.68
2.42%
41.24
1.0%
99.98
0.33%
302.94
1
5.76%
17.35
9.51%
10.51
7.85%
12.74
4.32%
23.17
1.78%
56.17
0.59%
170.21
2
5.13%
19.49
8.47%
11.81
6.98%
14.32
3.84%
26.03
1.58%
63.11
0.52%
191.24
3
3.04%
32.85
5.02%
19.91
4.14%
24.13
2.28%
43.88
0.94%
106.36
0.31%
322.27
4
1.35%
73.82
2.24%
44.74
1.84%
54.23
1.01%
98.6
0.42%
239.01
0.14%
724.11
5
0.48%
207.34
0.8%
125.68
0.66%
152.32
0.36%
276.93
0.15%
671.59
0.05%
2032.52
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.68% · Fair: 59.66
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 83.14% 16.86%
1.5 53.12% 46.88%
2.5 26.4% 73.6%
3.5 10.55% 89.45%
4.5 3.5% 96.5%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 80.79% 19.2%
1.5 49.11% 50.89%
2.5 22.96% 77.04%
3.5 8.59% 91.41%
4.5 2.65% 97.35%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.24% 30.88
1 11.11% 9.00
2 19.05% 5.25
3 21.78% 4.59
4 18.68% 5.35
5+ 26.14% 3.83
Over 2.5 66.6% Under 2.5 33.4%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 41.18%
Draw 23.93%
Away Win 34.89%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 66.6%
Under 2.5 33.4%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 67.17%
No 32.83%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.49% 10.54 12.41% 8.06 78.11% 1.28
-1.5 21.89% 4.57 — 78.11% 1.28
-1.0 21.89% 4.57 19.55% 5.11 58.55% 1.71
-0.5 41.45% 2.41 — 58.55% 1.71
0 (PK) 41.45% 2.41 22.49% 4.45 36.07% 2.77
+0.5 63.93% 1.56 — 36.07% 2.77
+1.0 63.93% 1.56 18.13% 5.52 17.94% 5.57
+1.5 82.06% 1.22 — 17.94% 5.57
+2.0 82.06% 1.22 10.66% 9.38 7.28% 13.73

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.