Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
33.34%
Fair Odds 3.0
Draw
25.11%
Fair Odds 3.98
Away Win
41.56%
Fair Odds 2.41
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.68% Fair Odds 9.37

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.0 —
Draw 3.98 —
Away Win 2.41 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.68% 9.37
2 1-2 8.81% 11.35
3 2-1 7.9% 12.66
4 0-1 7.21% 13.86
5 2-2 6.52% 15.34
6 1-0 6.47% 15.46
7 0-2 5.95% 16.8
8 1-3 4.84% 20.64
9 2-0 4.79% 20.89
10 0-0 4.37% 22.87
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.37%
22.87
7.21%
13.86
5.95%
16.8
3.27%
30.55
1.35%
74.06
0.45%
224.42
1
6.47%
15.46
10.68%
9.37
8.81%
11.35
4.84%
20.64
2.0%
50.05
0.66%
151.65
2
4.79%
20.89
7.9%
12.66
6.52%
15.34
3.58%
27.9
1.48%
67.63
0.49%
204.92
3
2.36%
42.34
3.9%
25.66
3.22%
31.1
1.77%
56.55
0.73%
137.08
0.24%
415.45
4
0.87%
114.42
1.44%
69.35
1.19%
84.05
0.65%
152.84
0.27%
370.51
0.09%
1122.33
5
0.26%
386.55
0.43%
234.3
0.35%
284.01
0.19%
516.26
0.08%
1251.56
0.03%
3787.88
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.11% · Fair: 89.94
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 77.24% 22.76%
1.5 43.55% 56.45%
2.5 18.61% 81.39%
3.5 6.32% 93.68%
4.5 1.76% 98.23%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 80.79% 19.2%
1.5 49.11% 50.89%
2.5 22.96% 77.04%
3.5 8.59% 91.41%
4.5 2.65% 97.35%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.37% 22.87
1 13.68% 7.31
2 21.41% 4.67
3 22.34% 4.48
4 17.48% 5.72
5+ 20.70% 4.83
Over 2.5 60.53% Under 2.5 39.47%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 33.34%
Draw 25.11%
Away Win 41.56%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 60.53%
Under 2.5 39.47%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 62.4%
No 37.6%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.1% 16.38 10.09% 9.91 83.81% 1.19
-1.5 16.19% 6.18 — 83.81% 1.19
-1.0 16.19% 6.18 18.33% 5.46 65.48% 1.53
-0.5 34.52% 2.9 — 65.48% 1.53
0 (PK) 34.52% 2.9 23.63% 4.23 41.85% 2.39
+0.5 58.15% 1.72 — 41.85% 2.39
+1.0 58.15% 1.72 20.43% 4.89 21.42% 4.67
+1.5 78.58% 1.27 — 21.42% 4.67
+2.0 78.58% 1.27 12.54% 7.97 8.87% 11.27

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.