Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
20.91%
Fair Odds 4.78
Draw
26.0%
Fair Odds 3.85
Away Win
53.08%
Fair Odds 1.88
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 12.26% Fair Odds 8.16

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.78 —
Draw 3.85 —
Away Win 1.88 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 12.26% 8.16
2 1-1 11.64% 8.59
3 0-2 10.11% 9.89
4 1-2 9.61% 10.41
5 0-0 7.43% 13.46
6 1-0 7.06% 14.17
7 0-3 5.56% 17.98
8 2-1 5.53% 18.08
9 1-3 5.28% 18.93
10 2-2 4.56% 21.92
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
12.26%
8.16
10.11%
9.89
5.56%
17.98
2.29%
43.6
0.76%
132.1
1
7.06%
14.17
11.64%
8.59
9.61%
10.41
5.28%
18.93
2.18%
45.89
0.72%
139.06
2
3.35%
29.84
5.53%
18.08
4.56%
21.92
2.51%
39.85
1.04%
96.61
0.34%
292.74
3
1.06%
94.22
1.75%
57.1
1.44%
69.22
0.79%
125.85
0.33%
305.06
0.11%
924.21
4
0.25%
396.67
0.42%
240.44
0.34%
291.46
0.19%
529.94
0.08%
1285.35
0.03%
3891.05
5
0.05%
2087.68
0.08%
1265.82
0.07%
1533.74
0.04%
2785.52
0.01%
6756.76
0.0%
20408.16
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.74% · Fair: 134.75
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 61.33% 38.67%
1.5 24.59% 75.41%
2.5 7.13% 92.87%
3.5 1.61% 98.39%
4.5 0.29% 99.71%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 80.79% 19.2%
1.5 49.11% 50.89%
2.5 22.96% 77.04%
3.5 8.59% 91.41%
4.5 2.65% 97.35%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 20.91%
Draw 26.00%
Away Win 53.08%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 49.55%
No 50.45%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 1.96% 50.93 5.48% 18.23 92.55% 1.08
-1.5 7.45% 13.43 — 92.55% 1.08
-1.0 7.45% 13.43 14.24% 7.02 78.32% 1.28
-0.5 21.68% 4.61 — 78.32% 1.28
0 (PK) 21.68% 4.61 24.51% 4.08 53.81% 1.86
+0.5 46.19% 2.16 — 53.81% 1.86
+1.0 46.19% 2.16 24.72% 4.04 29.08% 3.44
+1.5 70.92% 1.41 — 29.08% 3.44
+2.0 70.92% 1.41 16.54% 6.04 12.54% 7.97

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.