Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
20.44%
Fair Odds 4.89
Draw
26.0%
Fair Odds 3.85
Away Win
53.56%
Fair Odds 1.87
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 12.5% Fair Odds 8.0

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.89 —
Draw 3.85 —
Away Win 1.87 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 12.5% 8.0
2 1-1 11.63% 8.6
3 0-2 10.31% 9.69
4 1-2 9.59% 10.42
5 0-0 7.58% 13.2
6 1-0 7.05% 14.19
7 0-3 5.67% 17.63
8 2-1 5.41% 18.5
9 1-3 5.28% 18.95
10 2-2 4.46% 22.42
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.58%
13.2
12.5%
8.0
10.31%
9.69
5.67%
17.63
2.34%
42.73
0.77%
129.48
1
7.05%
14.19
11.63%
8.6
9.59%
10.42
5.28%
18.95
2.18%
45.95
0.72%
139.24
2
3.28%
30.52
5.41%
18.5
4.46%
22.42
2.45%
40.76
1.01%
98.81
0.33%
299.4
3
1.02%
98.44
1.68%
59.66
1.38%
72.32
0.76%
131.49
0.31%
318.78
0.1%
966.18
4
0.24%
423.37
0.39%
256.61
0.32%
311.04
0.18%
565.61
0.07%
1371.74
0.02%
4149.38
5
0.04%
2277.9
0.07%
1379.31
0.06%
1672.24
0.03%
3039.51
0.01%
7352.94
0.0%
22222.22
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.74% · Fair: 135.61
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 60.54% 39.46%
1.5 23.85% 76.15%
2.5 6.79% 93.21%
3.5 1.5% 98.5%
4.5 0.27% 99.73%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 80.79% 19.2%
1.5 49.11% 50.89%
2.5 22.96% 77.04%
3.5 8.59% 91.41%
4.5 2.65% 97.35%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.58% 13.20
1 19.55% 5.12
2 25.22% 3.97
3 21.69% 4.61
4 13.99% 7.15
5+ 11.98% 8.35
Over 2.5 47.65% Under 2.5 52.35%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 20.44%
Draw 26.00%
Away Win 53.56%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 47.65%
Under 2.5 52.35%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 48.92%
No 51.08%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 1.86% 53.89 5.31% 18.83 92.83% 1.08
-1.5 7.17% 13.96 — 92.83% 1.08
-1.0 7.17% 13.96 14.03% 7.13 78.81% 1.27
-0.5 21.19% 4.72 — 78.81% 1.27
0 (PK) 21.19% 4.72 24.5% 4.08 54.3% 1.84
+0.5 45.7% 2.19 — 54.3% 1.84
+1.0 45.7% 2.19 24.89% 4.02 29.42% 3.4
+1.5 70.58% 1.42 — 29.42% 3.4
+2.0 70.58% 1.42 16.71% 5.98 12.7% 7.87

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.