Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
30.73%
Fair Odds 3.25
Draw
25.53%
Fair Odds 3.92
Away Win
43.74%
Fair Odds 2.29
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.1% Fair Odds 9.01

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.25 —
Draw 3.92 —
Away Win 2.29 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.1% 9.01
2 1-2 9.11% 10.98
3 0-1 8.17% 12.25
4 2-1 7.55% 13.24
5 1-0 6.77% 14.77
6 0-2 6.7% 14.94
7 2-2 6.19% 16.15
8 0-0 4.98% 20.09
9 1-3 4.98% 20.09
10 2-0 4.6% 21.72
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.98%
20.09
8.17%
12.25
6.7%
14.94
3.66%
27.32
1.5%
66.64
0.49%
203.17
1
6.77%
14.77
11.1%
9.01
9.11%
10.98
4.98%
20.09
2.04%
49.0
0.67%
149.39
2
4.6%
21.72
7.55%
13.24
6.19%
16.15
3.38%
29.54
1.39%
72.06
0.46%
219.68
3
2.09%
47.91
3.42%
29.21
2.81%
35.63
1.53%
65.17
0.63%
158.96
0.21%
484.5
4
0.71%
140.9
1.16%
85.92
0.95%
104.78
0.52%
191.68
0.21%
467.51
0.07%
1424.5
5
0.19%
518.13
0.32%
315.86
0.26%
385.21
0.14%
704.72
0.06%
1718.21
0.02%
5235.6
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.95% · Fair: 104.88
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.33% 25.67%
1.5 39.43% 60.57%
2.5 15.69% 84.31%
3.5 4.93% 95.07%
4.5 1.27% 98.73%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 80.6% 19.4%
1.5 48.79% 51.21%
2.5 22.7% 77.3%
3.5 8.44% 91.56%
4.5 2.6% 97.4%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.98% 20.09
1 14.94% 6.70
2 22.40% 4.46
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.80% 5.95
5+ 18.47% 5.41
Over 2.5 57.68% Under 2.5 42.32%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 30.73%
Draw 25.53%
Away Win 43.74%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.68%
Under 2.5 42.32%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.91%
No 40.09%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.99% 20.05 9.14% 10.94 85.87% 1.16
-1.5 14.13% 7.08 — 85.87% 1.16
-1.0 14.13% 7.08 17.71% 5.65 68.16% 1.47
-0.5 31.84% 3.14 — 68.16% 1.47
0 (PK) 31.84% 3.14 24.04% 4.16 44.12% 2.27
+0.5 55.88% 1.79 — 44.12% 2.27
+1.0 55.88% 1.79 21.36% 4.68 22.76% 4.39
+1.5 77.24% 1.29 — 22.76% 4.39
+2.0 77.24% 1.29 13.29% 7.53 9.47% 10.56

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.