Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
25.79%
Fair Odds 3.88
Draw
25.97%
Fair Odds 3.85
Away Win
48.23%
Fair Odds 2.07
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.58% Fair Odds 8.63

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.88 —
Draw 3.85 —
Away Win 2.07 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.58% 8.63
2 0-1 10.07% 9.93
3 1-2 9.5% 10.53
4 0-2 8.26% 12.11
5 1-0 7.06% 14.16
6 2-1 6.66% 15.01
7 0-0 6.14% 16.28
8 2-2 5.46% 18.31
9 1-3 5.19% 19.26
10 0-3 4.52% 22.15
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.14%
16.28
10.07%
9.93
8.26%
12.11
4.52%
22.15
1.85%
54.02
0.61%
164.69
1
7.06%
14.16
11.58%
8.63
9.5%
10.53
5.19%
19.26
2.13%
46.97
0.7%
143.2
2
4.06%
24.62
6.66%
15.01
5.46%
18.31
2.99%
33.49
1.22%
81.69
0.4%
249.07
3
1.56%
64.23
2.55%
39.17
2.09%
47.76
1.14%
87.37
0.47%
213.08
0.15%
649.77
4
0.45%
223.41
0.73%
136.22
0.6%
166.14
0.33%
303.86
0.13%
741.29
0.04%
2257.34
5
0.1%
970.87
0.17%
592.42
0.14%
722.54
0.08%
1321.0
0.03%
3225.81
0.01%
9803.92
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.8% · Fair: 125.28
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 68.34% 31.66%
1.5 31.92% 68.08%
2.5 10.99% 89.01%
3.5 2.96% 97.04%
4.5 0.65% 99.35%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 80.6% 19.4%
1.5 48.79% 51.21%
2.5 22.7% 77.3%
3.5 8.44% 91.56%
4.5 2.6% 97.4%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.14% 16.28
1 17.14% 5.84
2 23.91% 4.18
3 22.23% 4.50
4 15.51% 6.45
5+ 15.08% 6.63
Over 2.5 52.82% Under 2.5 47.18%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 25.79%
Draw 25.97%
Away Win 48.23%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 52.82%
Under 2.5 47.18%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.08%
No 44.92%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.26% 30.67 7.3% 13.7 89.44% 1.12
-1.5 10.56% 9.47 — 89.44% 1.12
-1.0 10.56% 9.47 16.18% 6.18 73.26% 1.36
-0.5 26.74% 3.74 — 73.26% 1.36
0 (PK) 26.74% 3.74 24.48% 4.09 48.78% 2.05
+0.5 51.22% 1.95 — 48.78% 2.05
+1.0 51.22% 1.95 23.07% 4.33 25.71% 3.89
+1.5 74.29% 1.35 — 25.71% 3.89
+2.0 74.29% 1.35 14.84% 6.74 10.86% 9.2

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.