Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
14.68%
Fair Odds 6.81
Draw
25.74%
Fair Odds 3.89
Away Win
59.58%
Fair Odds 1.68
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 16.12% Fair Odds 6.2

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 6.81 —
Draw 3.89 —
Away Win 1.68 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 16.12% 6.2
2 0-2 13.22% 7.57
3 1-1 10.96% 9.12
4 0-0 9.83% 10.18
5 1-2 8.99% 11.13
6 0-3 7.22% 13.84
7 1-0 6.68% 14.96
8 1-3 4.91% 20.35
9 2-1 3.73% 26.84
10 2-2 3.06% 32.73
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.83%
10.18
16.12%
6.2
13.22%
7.57
7.22%
13.84
2.96%
33.76
0.97%
102.92
1
6.68%
14.96
10.96%
9.12
8.99%
11.13
4.91%
20.35
2.01%
49.65
0.66%
151.35
2
2.27%
44.01
3.73%
26.84
3.06%
32.73
1.67%
59.87
0.68%
146.03
0.22%
445.24
3
0.52%
194.17
0.84%
118.4
0.69%
144.38
0.38%
264.13
0.16%
644.33
0.05%
1964.64
4
0.09%
1141.55
0.14%
696.38
0.12%
849.62
0.06%
1552.8
0.03%
3787.88
0.01%
11494.25
5
0.01%
8403.36
0.02%
5128.21
0.02%
6250.0
0.01%
11363.64
0.0%
27777.78
0.0%
83333.33
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.69% · Fair: 145.96
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 49.34% 50.66%
1.5 14.89% 85.11%
2.5 3.18% 96.82%
3.5 0.52% 99.48%
4.5 0.07% 99.93%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 80.6% 19.4%
1.5 48.79% 51.21%
2.5 22.7% 77.3%
3.5 8.44% 91.56%
4.5 2.6% 97.4%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.83% 10.18
1 22.80% 4.39
2 26.45% 3.78
3 20.45% 4.89
4 11.86% 8.43
5+ 8.61% 11.61
Over 2.5 40.93% Under 2.5 59.07%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 14.68%
Draw 25.74%
Away Win 59.58%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 40.93%
Under 2.5 59.07%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 39.77%
No 60.23%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 0.8% 124.89 3.24% 30.83 95.96% 1.04
-1.5 4.04% 24.73 — 95.96% 1.04
-1.0 4.04% 24.73 11.17% 8.95 84.79% 1.18
-0.5 15.21% 6.57 — 84.79% 1.18
0 (PK) 15.21% 6.57 24.25% 4.12 60.54% 1.65
+0.5 39.46% 2.53 — 60.54% 1.65
+1.0 39.46% 2.53 26.94% 3.71 33.6% 2.98
+1.5 66.4% 1.51 — 33.6% 2.98
+2.0 66.4% 1.51 18.87% 5.3 14.73% 6.79

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.