Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
43.94%
Fair Odds 2.28
Draw
23.46%
Fair Odds 4.26
Away Win
32.6%
Fair Odds 3.07
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.12% Fair Odds 10.97

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.28 —
Draw 4.26 —
Away Win 3.07 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.12% 10.97
2 2-1 8.62% 11.6
3 1-2 7.43% 13.46
4 2-2 7.02% 14.24
5 1-0 5.59% 17.88
6 3-1 5.43% 18.42
7 2-0 5.29% 18.92
8 0-1 4.82% 20.73
9 3-2 4.42% 22.6
10 1-3 4.04% 24.77
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.96%
33.78
4.82%
20.73
3.93%
25.43
2.14%
46.81
0.87%
114.86
0.28%
352.36
1
5.59%
17.88
9.12%
10.97
7.43%
13.46
4.04%
24.77
1.65%
60.77
0.54%
186.43
2
5.29%
18.92
8.62%
11.6
7.02%
14.24
3.82%
26.21
1.55%
64.31
0.51%
197.28
3
3.33%
30.02
5.43%
18.42
4.42%
22.6
2.4%
41.6
0.98%
102.08
0.32%
313.09
4
1.57%
63.54
2.57%
38.98
2.09%
47.83
1.14%
88.04
0.46%
216.03
0.15%
662.69
5
0.59%
168.1
0.97%
103.14
0.79%
126.55
0.43%
232.88
0.18%
571.43
0.06%
1754.39
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.94% · Fair: 51.53
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 84.89% 15.11%
1.5 56.34% 43.66%
2.5 29.36% 70.64%
3.5 12.36% 87.64%
4.5 4.33% 95.67%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 80.41% 19.59%
1.5 48.47% 51.53%
2.5 22.44% 77.56%
3.5 8.3% 91.7%
4.5 2.54% 97.46%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.96% 33.78
1 10.42% 9.60
2 18.34% 5.45
3 21.52% 4.65
4 18.93% 5.28
5+ 27.83% 3.59
Over 2.5 68.28% Under 2.5 31.72%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 43.94%
Draw 23.46%
Away Win 32.60%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 68.28%
Under 2.5 31.72%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 68.26%
No 31.74%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 11.03% 9.07 13.3% 7.52 75.68% 1.32
-1.5 24.32% 4.11 — 75.68% 1.32
-1.0 24.32% 4.11 19.97% 5.01 55.71% 1.8
-0.5 44.29% 2.26 — 55.71% 1.8
0 (PK) 44.29% 2.26 22.03% 4.54 33.68% 2.97
+0.5 66.32% 1.51 — 33.68% 2.97
+1.0 66.32% 1.51 17.22% 5.81 16.46% 6.08
+1.5 83.54% 1.2 — 16.46% 6.08
+2.0 83.54% 1.2 9.89% 10.11 6.57% 15.22

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.