Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
35.3%
Fair Odds 2.83
Draw
24.96%
Fair Odds 4.01
Away Win
39.74%
Fair Odds 2.52
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.51% Fair Odds 9.52

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.83 —
Draw 4.01 —
Away Win 2.52 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.51% 9.52
2 1-2 8.56% 11.68
3 2-1 8.14% 12.28
4 0-1 6.78% 14.75
5 2-2 6.64% 15.07
6 1-0 6.45% 15.51
7 0-2 5.52% 18.1
8 2-0 5.0% 20.02
9 1-3 4.65% 21.49
10 3-1 4.21% 23.77
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.16%
24.05
6.78%
14.75
5.52%
18.1
3.0%
33.32
1.22%
81.75
0.4%
250.75
1
6.45%
15.51
10.51%
9.52
8.56%
11.68
4.65%
21.49
1.9%
52.75
0.62%
161.79
2
5.0%
20.02
8.14%
12.28
6.64%
15.07
3.61%
27.73
1.47%
68.06
0.48%
208.77
3
2.58%
38.74
4.21%
23.77
3.43%
29.17
1.86%
53.68
0.76%
131.73
0.25%
404.04
4
1.0%
99.99
1.63%
61.34
1.33%
75.27
0.72%
138.52
0.29%
339.9
0.1%
1042.75
5
0.31%
322.58
0.51%
197.86
0.41%
242.78
0.22%
446.83
0.09%
1096.49
0.03%
3367.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.18% · Fair: 85.07
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.78% 21.22%
1.5 45.88% 54.12%
2.5 20.38% 79.62%
3.5 7.21% 92.79%
4.5 2.1% 97.9%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 80.41% 19.59%
1.5 48.47% 51.53%
2.5 22.44% 77.56%
3.5 8.3% 91.7%
4.5 2.54% 97.46%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.16% 24.05
1 13.22% 7.56
2 21.03% 4.76
3 22.29% 4.49
4 17.72% 5.64
5+ 21.58% 4.63
Over 2.5 61.59% Under 2.5 38.41%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 35.30%
Draw 24.96%
Away Win 39.74%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 61.59%
Under 2.5 38.41%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 63.34%
No 36.66%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.92% 14.45 10.78% 9.28 82.3% 1.22
-1.5 17.7% 5.65 — 82.3% 1.22
-1.0 17.7% 5.65 18.84% 5.31 63.46% 1.58
-0.5 36.54% 2.74 — 63.46% 1.58
0 (PK) 36.54% 2.74 23.49% 4.26 39.97% 2.5
+0.5 60.03% 1.67 — 39.97% 2.5
+1.0 60.03% 1.67 19.81% 5.05 20.16% 4.96
+1.5 79.84% 1.25 — 20.16% 4.96
+2.0 79.84% 1.25 11.92% 8.39 8.24% 12.14

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.