Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
31.37%
Fair Odds 3.19
Draw
25.53%
Fair Odds 3.92
Away Win
43.1%
Fair Odds 2.32
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.09% Fair Odds 9.02

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.19 —
Draw 3.92 —
Away Win 2.32 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.09% 9.02
2 1-2 9.04% 11.07
3 0-1 8.03% 12.45
4 2-1 7.65% 13.07
5 1-0 6.8% 14.7
6 0-2 6.55% 15.27
7 2-2 6.24% 16.04
8 0-0 4.93% 20.29
9 1-3 4.91% 20.37
10 2-0 4.69% 21.31
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.93%
20.29
8.03%
12.45
6.55%
15.27
3.56%
28.11
1.45%
68.98
0.47%
211.6
1
6.8%
14.7
11.09%
9.02
9.04%
11.07
4.91%
20.37
2.0%
49.98
0.65%
153.33
2
4.69%
21.31
7.65%
13.07
6.24%
16.04
3.39%
29.52
1.38%
72.44
0.45%
222.22
3
2.16%
46.32
3.52%
28.42
2.87%
34.87
1.56%
64.17
0.64%
157.48
0.21%
483.09
4
0.74%
134.25
1.21%
82.37
0.99%
101.06
0.54%
186.01
0.22%
456.41
0.07%
1400.56
5
0.21%
486.38
0.34%
298.42
0.27%
366.17
0.15%
673.85
0.06%
1652.89
0.02%
5076.14
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.96% · Fair: 104.69
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.84% 25.16%
1.5 40.12% 59.88%
2.5 16.17% 83.83%
3.5 5.15% 94.85%
4.5 1.35% 98.65%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 80.41% 19.59%
1.5 48.47% 51.53%
2.5 22.44% 77.56%
3.5 8.3% 91.7%
4.5 2.54% 97.46%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.93% 20.29
1 14.84% 6.74
2 22.33% 4.48
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.86% 5.93
5+ 18.64% 5.36
Over 2.5 57.9% Under 2.5 42.1%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 31.37%
Draw 25.53%
Away Win 43.10%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.9%
Under 2.5 42.1%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 60.18%
No 39.82%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.21% 19.2 9.37% 10.68 85.43% 1.17
-1.5 14.57% 6.86 — 85.43% 1.17
-1.0 14.57% 6.86 17.92% 5.58 67.5% 1.48
-0.5 32.5% 3.08 — 67.5% 1.48
0 (PK) 32.5% 3.08 24.05% 4.16 43.45% 2.3
+0.5 56.55% 1.77 — 43.45% 2.3
+1.0 56.55% 1.77 21.17% 4.72 22.28% 4.49
+1.5 77.72% 1.29 — 22.28% 4.49
+2.0 77.72% 1.29 13.07% 7.65 9.21% 10.85

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.