Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
29.02%
Fair Odds 3.45
Draw
25.8%
Fair Odds 3.88
Away Win
45.18%
Fair Odds 2.21
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.37% Fair Odds 8.8

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.45 —
Draw 3.88 —
Away Win 2.21 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.37% 8.8
2 1-2 9.26% 10.8
3 0-1 8.88% 11.26
4 2-1 7.27% 13.75
5 0-2 7.24% 13.82
6 1-0 6.97% 14.34
7 2-2 5.93% 16.87
8 0-0 5.45% 18.36
9 1-3 5.03% 19.87
10 2-0 4.46% 22.41
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.45%
18.36
8.88%
11.26
7.24%
13.82
3.93%
25.43
1.6%
62.41
0.52%
191.46
1
6.97%
14.34
11.37%
8.8
9.26%
10.8
5.03%
19.87
2.05%
48.76
0.67%
149.57
2
4.46%
22.41
7.27%
13.75
5.93%
16.87
3.22%
31.05
1.31%
76.18
0.43%
233.7
3
1.9%
52.52
3.1%
32.22
2.53%
39.53
1.37%
72.76
0.56%
178.57
0.18%
547.65
4
0.61%
164.12
0.99%
100.68
0.81%
123.55
0.44%
227.38
0.18%
558.04
0.06%
1712.33
5
0.16%
641.03
0.25%
393.39
0.21%
482.63
0.11%
888.1
0.05%
2178.65
0.01%
6666.67
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.86% · Fair: 115.75
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 72.2% 27.8%
1.5 36.61% 63.39%
2.5 13.83% 86.17%
3.5 4.11% 95.89%
4.5 1.0% 99.0%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 80.41% 19.59%
1.5 48.47% 51.53%
2.5 22.44% 77.56%
3.5 8.3% 91.7%
4.5 2.54% 97.46%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.45% 18.36
1 15.85% 6.31
2 23.07% 4.34
3 22.37% 4.47
4 16.28% 6.14
5+ 16.98% 5.89
Over 2.5 55.63% Under 2.5 44.37%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 29.02%
Draw 25.80%
Away Win 45.18%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 55.63%
Under 2.5 44.37%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 58.05%
No 41.95%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.32% 23.17 8.5% 11.77 87.19% 1.15
-1.5 12.81% 7.8 — 87.19% 1.15
-1.0 12.81% 7.8 17.27% 5.79 69.92% 1.43
-0.5 30.08% 3.32 — 69.92% 1.43
0 (PK) 30.08% 3.32 24.31% 4.11 45.61% 2.19
+0.5 54.39% 1.84 — 45.61% 2.19
+1.0 54.39% 1.84 21.99% 4.55 23.62% 4.23
+1.5 76.38% 1.31 — 23.62% 4.23
+2.0 76.38% 1.31 13.78% 7.26 9.84% 10.16

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.